With the 2024 #1 NFL Draft Pick Caleb Williams set to open the season as the starter for the Chicago Bears, it is worth examining the recent history of top draft picks in the NFL. Chicago hosts Tennessee this weekend as Williams and the Bears look to break a negative trend for top picks. 

 

Quarterbacks were not always valued the way they are today as a quarterback was not the #1 pick in the NFL draft until the league’s ninth draft in 1944, when Notre Dame’s Heisman Trophy Winner Angelo Bertelli went 1st to the Boston Yanks. It wasn’t until the 1950s that quarterbacks were more commonly picked in the top spot, but it didn’t become an expected annual occurrence until the 2000s. 

 

In 1998, Peyton Manning went #1 to the Colts, and he was the first #1 pick at quarterback since Drew Bledsoe in 1993. Manning obviously went on to have an amazing career and can be considered the tipping point where the #1 pick being a quarterback became a regularity, as counting Manning, 20 of 27 #1 picks since 1998 have been quarterbacks. 

 

Manning started in Week 1 of his rookie season and took a 15-24 loss to Miami with the Colts, throwing for 302 yards but having three interceptions and few #1 picks have fared well on the scoreboard in Week 1 starts of their rookie seasons. John Elway did win as a rookie in Week 1 in 1983, but his situation was different, as he forced a trade from Indianapolis to Denver, joining a stronger team for his debut. 

 

From Troy Aikman in 1989 to Bryce Young in 2023, 15 different #1 draft pick quarterbacks have started in Week 1, and those teams are 1-13-1 S/U and 2-13 ATS. In that time frame there have been seven other #1 draft pick quarterbacks that did not start until a later week in their rookie season and those teams have gone 1-6 S/U and 1-6 ATS. 

 

The only quarterback since John Elway to be the #1 pick in the NFL draft and win while starting in Week 1 of their rookie season is David Carr, who started in Week 1 for the franchise debut of the Houston Texans in 2002. Carr wound up 23-56 as a starter in his career but he did throw two touchdowns while completing just 10 passes and being sacked six times as Houston won 19-10 hosting Dallas as an 8-point underdog in the opener. 

 

The previous season Michael Vick led Atlanta to a 20-13 win in his first NFL start, but Vick was eased into that role and did not start until Week 9, having seen the field in four different games prior to his first start. Carr is the last #1 draft pick quarterback to win his first start in any week, even with 15 quarterbacks drafted #1 from 2003 to 2023. 

 

Kyler Murray did lead Arizona to a tie in his first NFL start in Week 1 of 2019, as Arizona matched Detroit 27-27 even after falling behind 24-6 in the 4th quarter. Murray’s start was a spread winner with Arizona +3 in that game, and he provides the lone ATS win among the NFL starting debuts of the past 15 #1 draft pick quarterbacks. Those teams went 0-14-1 S/U and 1-13-1 ATS from Carson Palmer with Cincinnati in 2003 to Young with Carolina last season. The push belongs to Cam Newton in 2011, starting Week 1 for Carolina at Arizona, with the Panthers losing 28-21 while closing at +7. 

 

#1 draft pick quarterbacks playing as a favorite in Week 1 like Williams and the Bears will be to start the 2024 NFL season is a very rare occurrence. The only two quarterbacks drafted #1 that were on favorites as Week 1 starters going back to 1983 were Jameis Winston with Tampa Bay in 2015 and Trevor Lawrence in 2021 with the Jaguars.

 

Tampa Bay behind Winston lost 42-14 in that 2015 season opener hosting Tennessee and closing at -3. Jacksonville lost 37-21 as a -3.5-point road favorite in the 2021 opener at Houston. Jared Goff and the Rams were a -1 favorite in his first start in 2016 but that was a Week 11 game in which the Rams also lost 14-10. Vick was also a favorite in his Week 9 start in 2001 with Atlanta winning 20-13 as a -4.5-point favorite over Dallas. 

 

There is a great deal of enthusiasm for Williams and the Bears this season and unquestionably Williams has more offensive talent around him than most #1 draft pick rookies generally have. Chicago was also 7-10 last season for a more competitive record than most teams that hold the #1 pick as that selection was acquired via a 2023 trade with the Carolina Panthers, landing in a different situation than many of the top draft picks. Chicago is priced as a -3.5-point favorite Sunday hosting the Titans as Williams and the Bears look to break the recent negative trend for #1 draft pick quarterbacks.