Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/04/2024

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, May 04, 2024

The Saturday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The 150th running of the Kentucky Derby headlines the sporting events of the day. The Run for the Roses is the 12th race at Churchill Downs and has a start time of 6:57 PM ET.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with one game. The Denver Nuggets host the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinals series on TNT and truTV at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Nuggets are a 4.5-point favorite, with the total set at 207.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).The National Hockey League playoffs continue with one game. The Boston Bruins play at home against the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 7 of their Eastern Conference semifinals series on ABC at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Bruins are a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Saturday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The New York Yankees are at home against the Detroit Tigers at 1:05 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Minnesota Twins host the Boston Red Sox at 2:10 p.m. ET as a -166 money-line favorite. The St. Louis Cardinals play at home against the Chicago White Sox at 2:15 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Chicago Cubs are at home against the Milwaukee Brewers at 2:20 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line favorite. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Washington to play the Nationals as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Colorado Rockies as a -205 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Oakland A’s play at home against the Miami Marlins at 4:07 p.m. ET as a -122 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are at home against the San Francisco Giants at 6:05 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Cleveland Guardians host the Los Angeles Angels at 6:10 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Baltimore Orioles play in Cincinnati against the Reds at 6:40 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5.The Texas Rangers are in Kansas City to play the Royals at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -112 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Two MLB games start at 7:15 p.m. ET in regional coverage on Fox. The Tampa Bay Rays play at home against the New York Mets as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Houston Astros are at home against the Seattle Mariners as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Atlanta Braves at 9:10 p.m. ET as a -170 money-line favor with a total of 9.Matchweek 36 in the English Premier League continues with five matches. Arsenal is at home against Bournemouth on the USA Network at 7:30 a.m. ET as a -2 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Three more EPL matches begin at 10:10 a.m. ET. Brentford hosts Fulham as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3. Newcastle United visits Burnley as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3. Nottingham Forest plays at Sheffield United as a -1 goal-line road favorite with a total of 3. Manchester City hosts Wolverhampton on NBC as a -2.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5.

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Stanley Cup Playoffs: Betting the Second Round

by Sean Murphy

Friday, May 03, 2024

Betting on the second round of the NHL playoffs requires a mix of strategy, analysis and a bit of luck. Following a trusted professional handicapper can help you filter out the noise and identify positive expected value on a daily basis. Here are some tips to consider as the field narrows to eight teams vying for Lord Stanley's Cup. Analyze Team Form: Look beyond just the win-loss record in the first round. Consider factors such as goal differentials, shots on goal, time of possession and overall performance. Teams that dominated statistically in the first round are likely to carry that momentum into the second round.Evaluate Head-to-Head Matchups: Look at how teams matched up against each other during the regular season. Pay attention to trends such as which team has had success against the other and why. Certain teams may have specific strengths or weaknesses that could be exploited in the playoffs.Assess Goaltending: Goaltending is often the most crucial position in hockey, especially in the playoffs. Look at statistics such as save percentage, goals-against average and performance under pressure. Also, consider the depth of each team's goaltending roster in case of injuries or poor performance.Special Teams Performance: Analyze power play and penalty kill percentages for each team. A strong power play can capitalize on opportunities and swing the momentum of a game, while a solid penalty kill can shut down opponents' scoring chances.Home Ice Advantage: Take into account each team's performance at home versus on the road during the regular season. Some teams thrive in front of their home crowd and have a distinct advantage, while others may struggle away from home. Also, consider the impact of travel and fatigue on teams playing on the road.Injuries and Lineup Changes: Stay updated on injuries and lineup changes leading up to and during the series. A key player being sidelined or returning from injury can significantly impact a team's performance and strategy. Also, consider how teams adjust their line combinations and defensive pairings due to injuries or matchups.Look Beyond Statistics: While statistics are essential, don't rely solely on them. Consider intangible factors such as team chemistry, leadership and playoff experience. Teams with veteran players who have been through deep playoff runs may have a mental edge over younger, less experienced teams.Manage Your Bankroll: Set a specific budget for your betting activities and stick to it. Avoid chasing losses by betting more than you can afford to lose. Consider using strategies such as unit betting, where you wager a consistent percentage of your bankroll on each bet, to minimize risk.Shop for the Best Odds: Compare odds from multiple sportsbooks to ensure you're getting the best value for your bets. Even small differences in odds can have a significant impact on your overall profits, especially over the course of a long playoff series.Trust Your Instincts: While it's essential to do your research and analysis, don't discount your gut instincts. If something doesn't feel right about a particular bet or matchup, it's okay to pass or look for alternative betting opportunities. Trusting your instincts can help you avoid making rash decisions based solely on statistics or trends.Best of luck in round two!

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/03/2024

by Big Al Staff

Friday, May 03, 2024

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with two games on ESPN. The Orlando Magic host the Cleveland Cavaliers on ESPN at 7:10 p.m. ET as a 4-point favorite, with the total set at 200 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Dallas Mavericks play at home against the Los Angeles Clippers at 9:40 p.m. ET as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 206.5.  The National Hockey League playoffs continue with two games on TNT. The Nashville Predators are at home against the Vancouver Canucks at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Dallas Stars travel to Vegas to play the Golden Knights at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line road favored with an over/under of 5.5.The Friday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Chicago Cubs host the Milwaukee Brewers at 2:20 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite at BetMGM with a total of 7.5. The Baltimore Orioles play in Cincinnati against the Reds at 6:10 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET The Pittsburgh Pirates play at home against the Colorado Rockies as a -185 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are home against the San Francisco Giants on Apple TV+ as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Toronto Blue Jays are in Washington to play the Nationals on Apple TV+ at 6:45 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Mets at 6:50 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The New York Yankees play at home against the Detroit Tigers at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Cleveland Guardians are at home against the Los Angeles Angels at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -190 money-line favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 8. The Kansas City Royals host the Texas Rangers at 7:40 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Two MLB games start at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Boston Red Sox as a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Houston Astros are at home against the Seattle Mariners as a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The St. Louis Cardinals host the Chicago White Sox at 8:15 p.m. ET as a -265 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Two MLB games begin at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Oakland A’s play at home against the Miami Marlins as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Arizona Diamondbacks are home against the San Diego Padres as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Atlanta Braves at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 9.Matchweek 36 in the English Premier League starts with one match. Everton visits Luton Town at 3:00 p.m. ET in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/02/2024

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, May 02, 2024

The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with two games on TNT. The Indiana Pacers host the Milwaukee Bucks at 6:40 PM ET. The Pacers had won three games in a row in this series before their 115-92 upset loss on the road as a 5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Bucks still trail in the series by a 3-2 margin and need to win this game to force a decisive Game 7 back in Milwaukee. Indiana is an 8-point favorite, with the total set at 212.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Philadelphia 76ers play at home against the New York Knicks at 9:10 p.m. ET. The 76ers have won two of the last three games in this series after their 112-106 upset victory on the road as a 4-point underdog on Tuesday. The Knicks hold a 3-2 lead in the series and can advance to the Eastern Conference semifinals with an upset victory. Philadelphia is a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 198.5. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with one game on ESPN. The Toronto Maple Leafs are at home against the Boston Bruins on TBS at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Maple Leafs ended a two-game losing streak in this series with a 2-1 victory on the road on Tuesday. The Bruins hold a 3-2 lead in the series and can close things out and advance to the Eastern Conference semifinals with a victory. Toronto is a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5.The Thursday card in Major League Baseball has six games on its schedule. The Miami Marlins host the Colorado Rockies at 12:10 p.m. ET. The Marlins have won two games in a row after their 4-1 victory against the Rockies yesterday. Miami turn to Edward Cabrera as their starting pitcher to face Colorado’s Peter Lambert. The Marlins are a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The New York Yankees travel to Baltimore to play the Orioles at 1:05 p.m. ET. The Yankees ended a two-game losing streak with a 2-0 victory against the Orioles on Wednesday. Carlos Rodon takes the mound of New York to battle against a starting pitcher yet to be named for Baltimore. The New York Mets play at home against the Chicago Cubs at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Mets lost for the second time in their last three games in a 1-0 loss to the Cubs yesterday. New York sends out Adrian Houser to face Chicago’s Ben Brown. The Mets are a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Boston Red Sox are at home against the San Francisco Giants at 1:35 p.m. ET. The Red Sox are on a four-game winning streak after a 6-2 victory against the Giants on Wednesday. Josh Winckowski takes the hill for Boston to go against Kyle Harrison for the Giants. The Red Sox are a -118 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Texas Rangers host the Washington Nationals at 2:35 p.m. ET. The Rangers had won two games in a row before a 1-0 loss to the Nationals yesterday. Texas turns to Nathan Eovaldi to duel against Mitchell Parker for the Nationals. The Rangers are a -205 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Houston Astros play at home against the Cleveland Guardians at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Astros had won three games in a row before a 3-2 loss in ten innings to the Guardians on Wednesday. Spencer Arrighetti gets the start for Houston to pitch against Cleveland’s Logan Allen. The Astros are a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5.

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Big Al's 2024 Kentucky Derby Preview

by Al McMordie

Wednesday, May 01, 2024

The 2024 Kentucky Derby -- to be run this Saturday at the newly renovated Churchill Downs -- will likely be known for the horses that aren't in the starting gate as much as for the ones that are.  That's because it's possible that the two of the best 3YOs in the country won't be among the 20 starters because they are trained by Bob Baffert.  Baffert, you may recall, had a winning horse later disqualified from the 2021 Derby for a doping violation and Churchill Downs has banned the conditioner ever since.  Nonetheless, the landmark 150th running of the Great Race still has plenty in store for serious handicappers and casual fans alike.  So with that in mind, below we present our preview of the Contenders, Pretenders, and live longshots of the greatest two minutes in sports:    Contenders:    #2 - Sierra Leone.  For most horses, the #2 post position in a 20-horse Derby could be the kiss of death, but this son of Gun Runner is a stone-cold closer and he's likely going to retreat to the back of the pack anyway, so the 2 hole probably won't matter and in fact may even benefit horse and rider -- in this case, Tyler Gafflione -- alike.  If the pace is hot enough and Sierra Leone can navigate his way around or through 19 other horses, then he could get trainer Chad Brown -- who has won just about everything else in horse racing -- his first Derby victory.  You may not want to bet on him as the likely 2nd favorite (after Fierceness) but you can't deny his talent and the fact that, if there is enough speed in here, this horse will be flying late.   #4 - Catching Freedom.  Here's a riddle for you.  How can you win the Derby without ever having stepped foot (or hoof) in the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May?  Just ask trainer Brad Cox what that's like.  Cox had to wait more than a year for his horse Mandaloun to be declared the winner of the 2021 Derby after the official winner, Medina Spirit, tested positive for a banned substance and was eventually disqualified.  So Cox -- one of the most successful trainers in the U.S. over the past several years -- has entered three horses this year in an attempt to find out what it really feels like to win the World's most prestigious horse race.  Of the three, this son of Constitution is the most accomplished, having won the Louisiana Derby in his last start.  At 1 3/16 mile, that race is the one that's closest in distance to the Derby's 10 furlongs.      Pretenders (likely over-bet horses):    #17 - Fierceness. The likely Derby favorite is an all-or-nothing horse.  When this son of City of Light gets a clean break and no other horses are in his way or bumping him, he can run like Secretariat.  This was the case the both last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile and his most recent victory -- a 13-length romp in the Florida Derby.  But when things don't go his way -- he breaks slowly, gets jostled, etc. -- he seems to pack it in.  So what are the chances that everything goes his way on Saturday with 19 other horses trying to win this race and get draped in a blanket of roses?  It would take a lot more than his likely 2-1 odds to get us to find out.  He's on a bad race/good race streak right now (over his last four starts) and it doesn't get much better than his last so it's time for a letdown.    #11 - Forever Young.  Sometimes history is on your side, and sometimes it isn't.  There's no question that Forever Young has an impressive resume coming up to the Derby.  As the only undefeated horse in the field, you could say his resume is the best.  But when foreign runners come to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May -- and lately that means Japanese runners -- they leave empty-handed.  Can this son of Real Steel buck the trend and be the first to take home the Roses?  Sure he can.  But when it comes to Japanese horses in the Derby, I'm from Missouri -- SHOW ME.  And until they do, all bets -- including mine -- are off.   Live Longshots:    #3 - Mystik Dan.  If you believe in speed figures, then you're probably going to put some money on Fierceness who has registered the highest numbers in this field.  But the horse with the second highest figures -- both as a 2-year-old as well as in 2024 -- is this son of Goldencents.  The Kenny McPeek-trained runner put up a huge figure when winning the Southwest Stakes by eight lengths and although he couldn't repeat that effort when he stayed at Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby, Mystik Dan ran a credible 3rd despite having all kinds of trouble.  The McPeek/(jockey Brian) Hernandez combination is one that's very familiar with Churchill downs and in fact Mystik Dan has a 7-length victory over this surface last year.  There are enough knocks against this horse that you are likely to get a better price than his 20-1 morning line, making him one of the best values in the race.   #7 - Honor Marie.  Chances are even if you follow horse racing you haven't heard of trainer Whitworth Beckman.  The young conditioner worked for both Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown before striking out on his own in 2021.  This son of Honor Code is Beckman's first Kentucky Derby horse, but it almost certainly won't be his last.  Honor Marie has the type of improving form we like to see coming up to the Derby, including a fast-closing second in the Louisiana Derby in his last race.  Another 1/16 of a mile and Beckman's horse would have likely been the winner and wouldn't be considered such a longshot on Saturday.  Beckman is sticking with little known Ben Curtis in the saddle and that might be a problem were it not for the fact that Curtis rides regularly here at Churchill Downs.  Another 20-1 horse with a huge shot.    #15 - Domestic Product.  The other Chad Brown entrant in the field, this son of Practical Joke last won the Tampa Bay Derby after a long tote delay and he was able to overcome a ridiculously slow early pace in that race and still rally to get up from mid-pack.  The resulting speed figure from that race is -- not surprisingly -- low, but it is also misleading because of the way the lead horses were crawling in the first half.  The other reason Domestic Product is a bigger longshot than he should be is because the Tampa Bay Derby was eight weeks ago and few horses have been successful in the Derby after that much time off.  But Domestic Product has been training like a monster and he will also get one of the best jockeys in the world, Irad Ortiz, to pilot him, making him about as live as a horse can be.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and UCL Previews and Odds - 05/01/2024

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, May 01, 2024

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and UCL action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with two games on TNT. The Boston Celtics host the Miami Heat at 7:40 p.m. ET as a 14-point favorite, with the total set at 198.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Dallas Mavericks travel to Los Angeles to play the Clippers at 10:10 PM ET as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 207.5.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with two games on ESPN. The Dallas Stars play at home against the Vegas Golden Knights at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Edmonton Oilers are at home against the Los Angeles Kings at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -192 money-line favor with an over/under of 6.5.The Wednesday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:10 p.m. ET. The St. Louis Cardinals play in Detroit against the Tigers, with both teams priced at -110 with a total of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays are in Milwaukee to play the Brewers as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Minnesota Twins visit Chicago to play the White Sox at 2:10 p.m. ET as a -198 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays host the Kansas City Royals at 3:07 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates play in Oakland against the A’s at 3:37 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Atlanta Braves are in Seattle to play the Mariners at 3:40 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Los Angeles to play the Angels at 4:07 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The San Diego Padres play at home against the Cincinnati Reds at 4:10 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Baltimore Orioles are at home against the New York Yankees at 6:35 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Miami Marlins host the Colorado Rockies at 6:40 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Chicago Cubs play in New York against the Mets as a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the San Francisco Giants. Two MLB games start at 8:05 p.m. ET. The Texas Rangers are at home against the Washington Nationals as a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Houston Astros host the Cleveland Guardians as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Arizona against the Diamondbacks at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The first leg of the semifinals of the UEFA Champions League concludes on CBS at 3 PM ET. Borussia Dortmund plays at home against Paris Saint-Germain in a pick ‘em match at BetMGM with a total of 3. 

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Tarik Skubal's Emergence as an Elite Starting Pitcher

by Hollywood Sports

Tuesday, Apr 30, 2024

At this time last season, Tarik Skubal was still recovering from flexor tendon surgery that ended his 2022 season prematurely in August. He demonstrated promise that year by posting a 3.52 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 21 starts. A year later, he has become one of the best-starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. When he did return in early July of last year, he started 15 times the rest of the way. He posted a 7-3 record with a 2.80 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. After getting up to 80 pitches in his fourth start, he registered a 2.37 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in his final 12 starts. He struck out 33.6% of the batters he faced during that span. His outstanding pitching carried over into the spring where he registered a 2.57 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 14 innings. He struck out 17 batters and walked only three in those spring training efforts.  Going into his game on Sunday against Kansas City, the left-hander was coming off six shutout innings against Tampa Bay on Monday. He had a 3-0 record this season with a 1.82 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP in 29 2/3 innings. He had punched out 35 batters while only issuing five bases-on-balls — and he was striking out 31.2% of the batters he faced.  This start continues the great run he was on last year coming back from a midseason injury. Since the beginning of September through this month, Skubal had a 7-0 record with a 1.35 ERA. Last season, he had a 2.80 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP in 15 starts — and those numbers were validated by a 2.77 SIERA and a 2.56 xFIP along with an expected ERA of 2.30. I am leaning into the expected ERA (xERA) more this season as I am impressed with Statcast’s incorporation of hard-hit rates, barrel-rates, and exit velocity. In his eight starts at home last year, he sported a 1.37 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP and a .171 opponent batting average. This season, Skubal has a 2.56 SIERA and a 2.54 xFIP — and his xERA is 2.13. We can live with regression to those numbers from his current 1.82 ERA. His four-seamer is outstanding — and he uses his deceptive change-up as his primary off-speed pitch. If he can further develop his slider, he will be even more effective.  The Tigers had won 6 of their last 8 games at home with Skubal pitching with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. He was set up to thrive once again against this Royals team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 batting average, a .272 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .595.  Skubal gave up a leadoff double to Maikel Garcia who then scored when the next batter, Bobby Witt Jr,. singled him home. But that was all the damage that Kansas City could muster with Skubal only giving up our hits and that lone run in seven innings of work. The lefty struck out six batters. Detroit won the game by a 4-1 score — and we won our MLB American League Central Game of the Month.  Best of luck — Frank.

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North Carolina State's Bubble Burst (and so did our Fear and Loathing month of March)

by Hollywood Sports

Tuesday, Apr 30, 2024

Perhaps we just needed the calendar to move to April? After enjoying a good college basketball season that included winning our College Basketball Game of the Month with Iowa State’s easy victory against Oklahoma on February 28th, about nothing went right in March with a very disappointing March Madness campaign. But once we got out of the month, we went 6-0 with our final six college basketball plays in April with 2-0 sweeps in both Final Four games and then in the National Championship. We also won our College Basketball Game of the Year on Purdue in their Final Four contest.  Going into that game against North Carolina State, Purdue had won 10 of their last 11 games after their 72-66 victory against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game. The Wolfpack had won nine straight games after their 76-64 upset victory against Duke as a 7-point underdog in their Elite Eight game. This game was being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. NC State held the Blue Devils to just 32.2% shooting last Sunday which was the best defensive effort of their season. Getting Kyle Filipowski into foul trouble helped — and Duke made only five of their 20 shots (25%) of their shots from behind the arc. The Wolfpack’s improbable run after trailing a bad Louisville team at halftime in the opening round of the ACC Tournament had included seven upset victories. They have survived two overtime games. And they had probably been fortunate with opponent 3-point shooting woes since their last eight opponents have made only 26.2% of their shots behind the arc despite posting a 35.8% opponent shooting percentage from 3-point land after rallying to defeat the Cardinals a month ago.  I expected their bubble to finally burst — and in a big way — against this Boilermakers team. NC State’s run had been centered on the improved and inspired play of D.J. Burns whose playground post-up moves have baffled opponents. But the 275-pounder’s mojo was not going to fly when now being guarded by Zach Edey, who has seven inches and 25 pounds on him. Burns had thrived on taking advantage of opposing defenders leaning in on him to slow him down since he has the agility to spin by those guys. Edey did not need to do that — he was just going to stand there and raise his arms. He didn’t commit many fouls because simply staying vertical is imposing enough on potential shooters. Burns could attempt to attack the rim — but Edey’s 7.0% block rate of opposing shots he defends comes into play.  The Wolfpack faced an even bigger challenge trying to defend Edey — the conundrum was a huge challenge for head coach Kevin Keatts. If he used Burns to try to defend him, he risked getting him into foul trouble since Edey is so good at drawing fouls. Opposing big men had fouled out in 29 of the 37 games Purdue had played. Burns was too small to stop Edey’s hook shot. And he’s slow. Keatts could deploy Mohamed Diarra who is an inch taller than Burns — but he was spotting Edey 85 pounds. Another problem would then be that Burns would be forced to defend on the perimeter (probably against the 6’6 Mason Gillis) since Purdue played the other four players with Edey out on the perimeter where they all can make 3s. Keatts could try a zone defense to bypass these problems — but then Edey would have even more room to crash the boards for second-shot opportunities. He ranked third in the country by pulling down 18.5% of his team’s missed shots when he was on the court. And this potential zone would open up more 3-point opportunities for the Boilermakers who rank second in the nation by nailing 40.6% of their 3s. Purdue has scored 1.12 Points-Per-Possession in the rare times teams had attempted to deploy a zone defense against them.  NC State had failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win against an ACC rival. And teams in the NCAA Tournament coming off a win that eliminated Duke from the Big Dance had failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their next 9 games. NC State had failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 80% or more of their games. Purdue only made 45.3% of their shots against the tough Volunteers defense in the Elite Eight which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Boilermakers did control the boards by out-rebounding Tennessee by a 47-26 margin — and they had covered the point spread in 6 straight games after out-rebounding their last opponent by 20 or more boards. Purdue had covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they had covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court. The Boilermakers had covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games in the Big Dance under head coach Matt Painter when favored by nine or more points.  Purdue controlled the game in a 63-50 victory. Edey scored 20 points on 9 of 14 shooting and grabbed 12 rebounds. Burns only scored 8 points. The Wolfpack only made 37% of their shots. The closest NC State would make the game was within seven points with just over eight minutes left. We won our College Basketball Game of the Year and ended the season on a relatively high note, but understanding an autopsy is needed to determine what went wrong in the month of March. I’ll solve it.  Best of luck — Frank.

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Once Again, UConn Was Inevitable

by Team Del Genio

Tuesday, Apr 30, 2024

After UConn and Purdue won their final four games to reach the national championship game, it created a showdown between the two number-one seeds.  At first glance, it looked tough to lay six to seven points against this talented and determined Boilermakers squad that had won eleven of their last twelve games. Yet UConn had won eleven straight games in the NCAA tournament by 13 or more points. While it is difficult to repeat as national champions, the Huskies had already done most of the heavy lifting to get back to the title game. They took Alabama’s best punches early in their final four games as the Crimson Tide hit eight of their first eleven shots from 3-point land. Midway through the first half, the Huskies trailed, 23-18. Yet Alabama only made three of their last twelve shots from 3-point land while UConn would outscore them, 68-49, to win the game by an 86-72 score.  Purdue, on the other hand, looked shaky in their 63-50 victory against North Carolina State in their national semifinal game. The Boilermakers made only 40.0% of their shots and turned the ball over 16 times. Sophomore point guard Braden Smith only connected on one of his nine shots and committed five turnovers himself. He was called for two over-and-back backcourt violations early in the game which might have been a product of nerves.  UConn had a big advantage in the backcourt with their talented guards, Tristen Newton and Stephon Castle. Newton brought the experience of being in the starting five in last year’s championship run. Purdue still had Zach Edey yet this will be one of the rare times when he does not have a significant size edge against his opponent. Donovan Clingan is 7’2 and perhaps the best defensive center in the country. Edey needed to win this one-on-one battle by a decisive margin to make up for the advantage UConn has with their guards. That seemed unlikely, especially since Edey had played at least 38 minutes in three straight games making fatigue a factor working against him. Clingan has played less than 30 minutes in each of the games in the NCAA tournament. Purdue took plenty of 3-pointers and there was always a chance that they could get red-hot with these shots. This was how Creighton beat the Huskies the last time they lost a game in February. But head coach Dan Hurley was well-versed in preparing his teams to defend against this style of play. The Huskies were difficult to beat by relying on 3-pointers. Their opponents made only 31.4% of these shots against them which was the 42nd-best mark in the country. UConn did a great job getting shooters off the 3-point line as well. Their opponents took only 33.4% of their shots from 3-point land which is the 50th lowest mark. Overall, the Huskies opponents scored only 28.2% of their shots from 3-pointers. That mark ranked 263rd lowest in the country and is far below the 30.4% national average.  In his seventeen games in the NCAA tournament coaching for Rhode Island or UConn, Hurley’s teams had covered the point spread fourteen times. UConn had covered the point spread in twenty-eight of their last thirty-three games against non-conference opponents under Hurley. Take away the non-conference games when the Huskies were favored by 20 or more points and UConn had won and covered the point spread in twenty-one of those twenty-two non-conference games.  The Huskies could get hot from 3-point land themselves which would make the Boilermakers task nearly impossible. They had their best shooting performance from 3-point land in the NCAA tournament against Alabama by making 10 of their 25 shots from distance. UConn averages 24 shots from behind the 3-point line, and Purdue had covered the point spread in three of their last nine games after fifteen games against teams who average 21 or more 3-point attempts per game.  Finally, the outstanding defense that the Huskies played should not have been dismissed lightly. They ranked fourth in the country in defensive efficiency and had held their first four opponents to 58 or fewer points before Alabama scored 72 against them. The Huskies allowed only 63.5 points per game, and the Boilermakers had covered the point spread only once in their last seven games after fifteen games into the season against teams who do not allow more than 64 points per game.  Our prognostication was rewarded by UConn’s 75-60 victory. The Huskies went into halftime with a 36-30 lead before slowly but methodically breaking the will of the Boilermakers in the second half to win their second straight national championship.  Good luck - TDG.

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Humiliated Home Dogs Rarely Save Face in Avoiding a Playoff Sweep

by Team Del Genio

Tuesday, Apr 30, 2024

After the Minnesota Timberwolves took a 3-0 series lead against the Phoenix Suns in a 126-109 upset victory as a 5.5-point underdog in Game 3 of that opening-round series on Friday, the oddsmakers installed them as a 2-point road favorite in Game 4 last Sunday. The betting market thought that was unjustified. Perhaps sold that the veteran Suns players like Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal would raise their level of play to avoid getting swept on their home court. The betting market may have been influenced by the Los Angeles Lakers beating Denver the previous night to keep that series alive rather than end their season on their home court getting swept. Phoenix closed as a 1.5-point favorite in many shops. Yet history had demonstrated that home teams trying to avoid getting swept after getting dominated in the first three games of an NBA series simply do not fare well relative to the point spread. The Timberwolves won the first of their games by 25, 12, and 15 points. In their 126-109 upset victory on the road as a 5.5-point underdog on Friday, the Timberwolves had six players score in double digits led by Anthony Edwards’ 36 points. Head coach Chris Finch was outcoaching the Suns’ Frank Vogel. Minnesota was imposing its physical will on them. They outscored Phoenix by 20 points in the paint in Game 3. They were scoring 38.5% of their shots at the rim in this series. The Suns did not seem to have a player who could slow down Edwards.  We considered this point spread movement as an overreaction, and history bears this out. Since the first round of the NBA playoffs was expanded to seven games, there had been nine teams who won the first three games of the opening series by ten or more points. Seven of these teams went on to win Game 4, and they all triumphed by six or more points. Three of those teams continued blowing out their outmatched opponents by twenty or more points. Only the 2012 Miami Heat and the 2018 Golden State Warriors failed to end that opening-round series in the fourth game. It perhaps is revealing that what both that Heat team and those Warriors had in common was that they both had reached the NBA finals the previous season. In hindsight, they got complacent and gave their opponent a little more life. Minnesota was still looking for their first playoff series victory in the Edwards era. They lost in the opening round to Denver in five games last year.  The Suns started the game well and went into the locker room with a 61-56 lead. Yet the Timberwolves outscored them in the second half, 66-55, and ended the series with a 122-116 upset victory. Minnesota even covered the opening point spread from the oddsmakers as a 2-point road favorite. It is now eight of ten teams who won the first three games of the opening series by ten or more points and then went on to win Game 4 by six or more points.  While it would probably be foolish to bet on a road team attempting to pull off a playoff sweep after winning the first three games by ten or more points solely because of this reason, it is something to consider. At the very least, this trend may provide enough of a reason to lay off the home dog playing for pride in front of their fans. Three straight losses by double-digits say something about the relative strengths of both teams. In this case, the oddsmakers recognized that and moved the point spread 7 points initially before the market responded. Once again, the wisdom of the oddsmakers was on display.  Good luck - TDG.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 04/30/2024

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Apr 30, 2024

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with three games. The New York Knicks host the Philadelphia 76ers on TNT at 7:10 p.m. ET as a 4-point favorite, with the total set at 202 (all odds from DraftKings). The Cleveland Cavaliers play at home against the Orlando Magic on NBA TV at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 199.5. The Indiana Pacers travel to Milwaukee to play the Bucks on TNT at 9:40 p.m. ET as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 214.5. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with four games. The Boston Bruins are at home against the Toronto Maple Leafs on ESPN at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -166 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Carolina Hurricanes host the New York Islanders on TBS at 7:40 p.m. ET as a -258 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche play in Winnipeg against the Jets on ESPN at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Vancouver Canucks play at home against the Nashville Predators on TBS at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5.The Tuesday card in Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The Detroit Tigers are at home against the St. Louis Cardinals in the first game of their doubleheader at 3:40 p.m. ET as a -128 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Yankees are in Baltimore to play the Orioles at 6:35 p.m. ET as a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Miami Marlins host the Colorado Rockies. The Tigers play at home against the Cardinals in the second game of their doubleheader as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays are at home against the Kansas City Royals at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Two more MLB games start at 7:10 p.m. ET. The New York Mets host the Chicago Cubs as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The San Francisco Giants visit the Boston Red Sox as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8. Two more MLB games begin at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Twins play in Chicago against the White Sox as a -166 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays are in Milwaukee to play against the Brewers. The Texas Rangers play at home against the Washington Nationals at 8:05 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Houston Astros are at home against the Cleveland Browns at 8:10 p.m. ET on FS1 as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Los Angeles to play the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Four games conclude the MLB card at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Atlanta Braves play in Seattle to play the Mariners as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Arizona to play the Diamondbacks as a -112 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates visit Oakland to play the A’s as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Cincinnati Reds play in San Diego against the Padres.

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Value Betting: Home Factoring Adjustments

by Scott Rickenbach

Monday, Apr 29, 2024

Though I am known for betting a lot of totals and underdogs, when it comes to spread sports in particular, of course there are plenty of opportunities to bet favorites when the number and/or price is right and the value is there. One of the keys about favorites is whether or not the home court or home field or home ice or home pitch is properly factored and how that pertains to the team you are wanting to bet. The reason this can be a key is that generally the extra value added to the home team when lines are made is quite standard. You can get value in betting on or against a home favorite when you factor this in. Since the factor for the home team is generally standard but teams do perform differently than others when at home you get some value spots.  This is because some are exceptional and have a huge home edge while others are sometimes even better on the road or at least just as good away from home compared to as a host. The value can be had in looking for extra line variations based on this home/road value generated aspect. I always do my first handicapping based on situational aspects. But then, after finding the games I want to dive further into, I always factor in the home/road dichotomy of each match-up and how that creates value. The ones with the biggest variations from the mean are almost always the ones that make the final cut for me. So sometimes I might be backing the undervalued home fave or fading an overvalued home team. The key here is evaluating, for example, should this NFL home team be given the 3 points extra they are being given under the circumstances. Perhaps a team does not deserve anything extra because they are lousy at home. Or maybe they are ultra strong at home and one could argue the line should have been bolstered by 5 points at home. These are the keys to line value when you like something already but also are happy to see the line factoring on the home team is working in your favor as well! This can be a key to extra betting value throughout a season. 

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