The New Year is here and with that comes the start of the new ATP season for 2025. The 1st major of the year is the Australian Open and it all starts on January 11. 2024 was a big year for the men as some of the younger players are starting to assert their dominance in the sport with the old guard starting to phase themselves out with age. With the start of the Australian Open just around the corner now, it is time to see who has the best chance of taking home the title this season. 

Jannik Sinner +150: Jannik Sinner is the player with the best chance at winning the Australian Open Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Jannik Sinner really emerged as a dominant player in 2024, now ranked number 1 in the world. Sinner dominated the hardcourt in 2024, going 53-3 on the surface with 7 titles. He won both major tournaments on hardcourt in 2024 as well, taking the US Open and the Australian Open. Sinner is the defending champion of this tournament and he has been in great form coming into the new year, winning his last 18 straight matches and winning his last 9 straight without dropping a set. He has been on fire all year and is clearly the player to beat in this tournament, but he has also been dealing with a doping scandal over the last year and it is currently in an appeal so that decision is still looming over him and could have a negative impact mentally. There is a lot to love about Sinner coming into this tournament, but +150 is not a great price and he does have a kryptonite that could give him some trouble if he runs into that player. 

Carlos Alcaraz +333: Carlos Alcaraz is the player with the next best chance at winning the Australian Open Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Carlos Alcaraz is currently ranked number 3 in the world and he has been emerging as a dominant young player over the last 3 years. He has won at least 1 major title in each of the last 3 years, but he has not won a major on hardcourt since winning the 2022 US Open. That US Open win is his only hardcourt major title in his career, but he was still a dominant player last season as he won 2 majors. He took the French Open as well as Wimbledon, but he is going to be focused on this tournament as this is the only major he has not won in his career. A win at this tournament would mean completing the career Grand Slam for him, and he was the 2nd best hardcourt player on the tour last season, going 29-8 with 2 titles. He did not end the year in great form, but he was also dealing with an injury that he picked up and the time off he has had will help get him to 100% for this tournament. He has also been the kryptonite to the current number 1 as Sinner only lost 3 matches on hardcourt in 2024, and 2 of those 3 losses were to Alcaraz. Alcaraz has also bested him on the surface throughout their careers as Alcaraz is 5-2 H2H against Sinner on hardcourt. Alcaraz is coming off of a great season and the focus is going to be there with this being the only major he has not won. He also has the quality to beat the player that has seemed unbeatable recently so there is some good value in Alcaraz at this price. 

Novak Djokovic +350: Novak Djokovic is the player with the next best chance at winning the Australian Open Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Novak Djokovic has been a dominant player on the tour over the last few years, currently ranked number 7 in the world. He was ranked number 1 in the world for a while and had a dominant spell from 2021-2023, but his age is starting to catch up to him as he went from winning at least 1 major title in 6 straight years to going empty handed in the 2024 season. 2023 was a massive year for him as he almost completed the Grand Slam, winning 3 of the 4 majors, but he did not have the gas last year. Playing in the Olympics also took a toll on him and he has been dealing with injuries that did not have him at 100%. He is a very decorated player in this tournament as he has won 10 Australian open Titles in his career, his last coming in 2023, but he did not play many hardcourt matches in 2024. He went 16-5 on hardcourt in 2024, but he won no titles and has struggled to compete with the top players in the world recently. Djokovic has had a great career and only got better after hitting the age of 30, but now he is 37 and his age has been catching up to him as he is past his prime. A year without winning a major will surely spark something in him this year, but he is not the same player as he was from 2021-2023 when he really peaked and he does not have a lot of value at this price to win this tournament. 

Alexander Zverev +1000: Alexander Zverez is the player with the next best chance at winning the Australian Open Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Alexander Zverev is currently ranked number 2 in the world and he has battled back over the last 2 years after suffering a devastating ankle injury. It was tough for him to come back at first, but he ended last year playing very well and is starting to regain his form prior to that injury. He is still looking for his 1st ever major title and this was the closest he came last season as he made it all the way to the Semi Final, losing to Medvedev in a 5 set thriller. He will be looking to repeat that performance this year as he searches for his 1st major title, and he was very good on hardcourt in 2024 with a 40-13 record on the surface with 1 title. He ended the year playing very well as he won the Paris Hardcourt Indoor Tournament back in November and then played well after that in the ATP Finals, losing to Fritz in that tournament, but now he has been ramping himself up in the United Cup and is going to be a very dangerous player in this tournament. He certainly has the talent to go far and he has had success against the top 2 players in the world on this surface, going 3-0 H2H against Alcaraz and 2-1 H2H against Sinner on hardcourt in his career. Zverev went deep in this tournament last year so he is going to be focused on doing that again as he is hungry for his major title, and there is a lot of value in him at this price to be a dark horse in the tournament. 

Daniil Medvedev +1400: Daniil Medvedev is the player with the next best chance at winning the Australian Open Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Daniil Medvedev is currently ranked number 5 in the world, but he is not the same player he was just a few years ago. The last major title he won, which is also the only major title he has won in his career, was the 2021 US Open. Medvedev was one of the best in the world during that time, flirting with the number 1 rank and being the 1 rival to Djokovic in that span, even preventing Djokovic from completing the Grand Slam with that US Open win, but he has really fallen off the map over the last year. Hardcourt has been his best surface, but he was not a top 5 player on hardcourt in 2024. He made it to the Final in this tournament last year, losing to Jannik Sinner, but 2024 was not a great year for him as he struggled in the other majors. He made it to the Semi Final at Wimbledon, but he saw some early exits in the French Open, the US Open, and even the Olympics. He did not end the year playing well either, getting knocked out in the first round of both tournaments, the Six Kings Slam and the Paris Hardcourt Indoor, and he also went to the ATP Finals where he lost 2 of the 3 matches he played. Medvedev did not have a good 2024 and he has only got worse with his form to end the year. He had success in this tournament last year, but he has struggled against the top players when he has had to face them and it is very likely that he will run into someone in this tournament who will get the best of him. There is no real value in Medvedev to win this title. 

There are a lot of quality players coming into this tournament, but only a handful have a realistic shot at winning the title. It is very rare that an unexpected player wins a major on the men's side as the last 16 straight major titles have been won by top players in the world, and only 5 different players have won in that span as well. Carlos Alcaraz has really emerged as a dominant force in the sport and he has a lot of value at +333 to win the title as he will be focused and there has not been a repeat winner of the Australian Open in the last 3 years, Djokovic being the last to do it when he won the titles from 2019-2021. Zverev at +1000 also has a lot of value as a dark horse since he has battled back to be the number 2 player in the world and has a very good record on this surface against some of the top players in the world. Carlos Alcaraz at +333 is the best option to win the 2025 Australian Open followed by Alexander Zverev at +1000 as a dark horse.