by Team Del Genio
Monday, Mar 31, 2025The Auburn Tigers are a chameleon when it comes to tempo. Head coach Bruce Pearl wants his team to be comfortable playing in track meets and in slow slogs.
In their Sweet Sixteen game, Michigan head coach Dusty May wanted the Wolverines to play quickly in their showdown with the Tigers, and Pearl was happy to oblige. Auburn rallied from a 48-39 deficit in the second half to win by a 78-65 score in a game that finished far below the 155.5 over/under number installed by the oddsmakers. Yet the low score had everything to do with poor shooting than a slow pace, as the 75 possessions in that game were the second most in regulation time the Tigers experienced all season. The lone exception was the 78 possessions in Auburn’s game against Alabama in February, and the Crimson Tide played at the fastest pace in the country.
The Tigers only shot 39.4% from the field in the win, yet they tightened things up on defense by holding the Wolverines to 35.6% shooting. After that game, Auburn’s opponents were scoring 69.3 points per game on 40.8% shooting, and their last five opponents after that game were averaging only 65.0 points per game on 39.8% shooting. They ranked eighth in the country in defensive efficiency.
Yet the Tigers have played low-scoring games at slower paces as well this season. Division I college basketball games average 67.4 possessions per game. Tennessee was one of the slowest-paced teams in the country, whose games average 63.6 possessions per game. In their first game against the Volunteers, they won in a very low-scoring game, 53-51, with 63 possessions for both teams. In the rematch in the SEC tournament, the shooting was better for both sides yet only 135 combined points were scored in Tennessee’s 70-65 victory, where there was one less possession for each team at 62. Auburn was willing to play at South Carolina’s preferred slow pace in conference play as well. The Gamecocks play at the 287th slowest pace in the country, and the Tigers beat them, 66-63, with 60 possessions. In their second game of the season against Houston, whose average of 61.6 possessions per game is also the lowest in the country, Auburn won, 74-68, in a game with 62 possessions played.
What would the pace of play be for the Tigers’ Elite Eight showdown with Michigan State? The Spartans were playing at the national average when it comes to pace at 67.4 possessions per game. Yet in the Spartans' 11-2 run to the under in their last thirteen games, they had seen their possession average drop to 66.8 per game, ranking 207th in the country. In their ten games away from the Breslin Center against opponents who rank in the top fifty in the country in net efficiency, the possessions per game mark lower to 65.7, ranking 272nd in the country.
An old-school coach like Tom Izzo’s instinct is to slow the game down when playing an opponent who may have better talent. In their previous two games in this tournament against New Mexico and Mississippi, there were 65 and 64 possessions. He wants a slow tempo, and Pearl usually obliges. The Spartans had played six of their last seven games under the number when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. They had played five straight unders against teams winning 80% or more of their games. They had played fourteen of their last seventeen games under the total when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 140 to 149.5. Four of those five unders in that point total range were played on a neutral court.
Auburn had played fifteen of their last twenty-two games under the number when playing for the second time in three days. They had played five of their last eight games in the NCAA tournament under the total with Pearl as their head coach.
Michigan State was one of the best defensive teams in the country and ranks fifth in defensive efficiency. They held Ole Miss to 40.6% shooting in their win in the Sweet Sixteen. The Tigers held their opponents to 40.8% shooting before the Elite Eight, and the Spartans had played twelve of their last fifteen games under the total against opponents with a defensive field goal percentage of 42% or lower.
Both of these squads are great rebounding teams, and the battle of the boards should contribute to slowing their Elite Eight game down. Auburn averaged 35 rebounds and limited their opponents to 29 rebounds, and Michigan State had played ten of their last eleven games under the number against opponents with a +4.0 or higher net rebounding margin.
The Tigers won the game, 70-64, to advance to the Final Four. Auburn only shot 43% from the field in the victory, yet they held the Spartans made 34% of their shots. Yet, Izzo got the pace of play he preferred, as there were 67 mutual possessions in the game. Sure enough, the 134 combined points scored were below the total of 147.5 installed by the oddsmakers.
Good luck - TDG.
In their Sweet Sixteen game, Michigan head coach Dusty May wanted the Wolverines to play quickly in their showdown with the Tigers, and Pearl was happy to oblige. Auburn rallied from a 48-39 deficit in the second half to win by a 78-65 score in a game that finished far below the 155.5 over/under number installed by the oddsmakers. Yet the low score had everything to do with poor shooting than a slow pace, as the 75 possessions in that game were the second most in regulation time the Tigers experienced all season. The lone exception was the 78 possessions in Auburn’s game against Alabama in February, and the Crimson Tide played at the fastest pace in the country.
The Tigers only shot 39.4% from the field in the win, yet they tightened things up on defense by holding the Wolverines to 35.6% shooting. After that game, Auburn’s opponents were scoring 69.3 points per game on 40.8% shooting, and their last five opponents after that game were averaging only 65.0 points per game on 39.8% shooting. They ranked eighth in the country in defensive efficiency.
Yet the Tigers have played low-scoring games at slower paces as well this season. Division I college basketball games average 67.4 possessions per game. Tennessee was one of the slowest-paced teams in the country, whose games average 63.6 possessions per game. In their first game against the Volunteers, they won in a very low-scoring game, 53-51, with 63 possessions for both teams. In the rematch in the SEC tournament, the shooting was better for both sides yet only 135 combined points were scored in Tennessee’s 70-65 victory, where there was one less possession for each team at 62. Auburn was willing to play at South Carolina’s preferred slow pace in conference play as well. The Gamecocks play at the 287th slowest pace in the country, and the Tigers beat them, 66-63, with 60 possessions. In their second game of the season against Houston, whose average of 61.6 possessions per game is also the lowest in the country, Auburn won, 74-68, in a game with 62 possessions played.
What would the pace of play be for the Tigers’ Elite Eight showdown with Michigan State? The Spartans were playing at the national average when it comes to pace at 67.4 possessions per game. Yet in the Spartans' 11-2 run to the under in their last thirteen games, they had seen their possession average drop to 66.8 per game, ranking 207th in the country. In their ten games away from the Breslin Center against opponents who rank in the top fifty in the country in net efficiency, the possessions per game mark lower to 65.7, ranking 272nd in the country.
An old-school coach like Tom Izzo’s instinct is to slow the game down when playing an opponent who may have better talent. In their previous two games in this tournament against New Mexico and Mississippi, there were 65 and 64 possessions. He wants a slow tempo, and Pearl usually obliges. The Spartans had played six of their last seven games under the number when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. They had played five straight unders against teams winning 80% or more of their games. They had played fourteen of their last seventeen games under the total when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 140 to 149.5. Four of those five unders in that point total range were played on a neutral court.
Auburn had played fifteen of their last twenty-two games under the number when playing for the second time in three days. They had played five of their last eight games in the NCAA tournament under the total with Pearl as their head coach.
Michigan State was one of the best defensive teams in the country and ranks fifth in defensive efficiency. They held Ole Miss to 40.6% shooting in their win in the Sweet Sixteen. The Tigers held their opponents to 40.8% shooting before the Elite Eight, and the Spartans had played twelve of their last fifteen games under the total against opponents with a defensive field goal percentage of 42% or lower.
Both of these squads are great rebounding teams, and the battle of the boards should contribute to slowing their Elite Eight game down. Auburn averaged 35 rebounds and limited their opponents to 29 rebounds, and Michigan State had played ten of their last eleven games under the number against opponents with a +4.0 or higher net rebounding margin.
The Tigers won the game, 70-64, to advance to the Final Four. Auburn only shot 43% from the field in the victory, yet they held the Spartans made 34% of their shots. Yet, Izzo got the pace of play he preferred, as there were 67 mutual possessions in the game. Sure enough, the 134 combined points scored were below the total of 147.5 installed by the oddsmakers.
Good luck - TDG.
