by Team Del Genio
Monday, Mar 31, 2025Ole Miss was a dangerous underdog in one of the three showdowns between the SEC and the Big Ten in the Sweet Sixteen. Florida made a strong case that the SEC is the superior conference with their 16-point victory against Maryland in a Sweet Sixteen game played the night before.
The Rebels may have had eleven losses on the year, yet they had an impressive list of victories against Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas in conference play. They beat BYU, Louisville, and Colorado State in non-conference play before a statement victory against Iowa State as a five-point underdog in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Mississippi shot 58.2% from the field against the Cyclones, and they had covered the point spread in five of their last seven games after playing a game where they scored 85 or more points. They had covered the point spread in five of their last six games after pulling off an upset win in their previous game.
What makes head coach Chris Beard’s team tough to play is their ability to win the turnover battle. When they had the basketball, they only turned the ball over in 12.9% of their possessions, ranking third best in the country. They forced turnovers in 20.3% of their opponents’ possessions, ranking 33rd in the country. The Rebels had covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games on the road against non-conference opponents. They had covered the point spread in nine of their last fourteen games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. They had covered the point spread in all five of their games on a neutral court when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog or as a pick ‘em.
Michigan State faced a difficult challenge against the style of defense that Ole Miss plays. Beard’s defensive philosophy is to take away the middle of the court. His defenders try to force the opposing players to the baseline and the sidelines to use the out-of-bounds as an extra defender. One of the most effective ways to confront this type of defensive scheme is to get the ball-handler in isolation and then space the floor to either unclog the middle or find open areas. The Spartans' offense was predicated on ball movement. They had an assist rate of 61.1% of their made field goals, the 17th-highest mark in the country. Yet ball movement does not necessarily penetrate a clogged middle. Head coach Tom Izzo rarely relies on isolation plays. His team ranked 342nd in the frequency of isolation plays coming off of passes, and they ranked 337th in offensive efficiency from those isolation plays.
Michigan State won for the tenth time in their last eleven games with a 71-63 victory against New Mexico in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Yet of concern in that game was that their freshman phenom, Jase Richardson, only scored 6 points and missed all five of his 3-point shot attempts. Richardson jump-started the Spartans' scoring attack when he entered the starting lineup in early February. He was making 40.4% of his 3-pointers. He had played twelve straight games where he scored 10 or more points. He might have just had an off night, or the freshman may have struggled with the pressure of the NCAA tournament. If he is not hitting his 3s, Michigan State could be in grave trouble since they only make 31.0% of their shots from the 3-point line, ranking 323rd in the country. They only take 32.7% of their shots from 3-point land. That mark ranked 329th in the country and far below the national average of teams taking 39.0% of their shots from the 3-point line.
Ole Miss was limiting their opponents to 32.5% shooting from 3-point range, ranking 98th in the country. The Spartans were one of the best rebounding teams in the country. They rebound 35.8% of their missed shots, ranking 19th in the country. Yet Michigan State usually loses the turnover battle. They only forced turnovers 16.2% of the time, ranking 245th in the country. In Big Ten play, they turned the ball over 16.7% of the time, ranking 13th in the conference. Given their lack of 3-point shooting, rebounding may not be enough to cover the point spread against this tested Rebels team that wins the turnover battle.
The Spartans survived this Sweet Sixteen showdown, yet they only won by a 73-70 score. Ole Miss covered the point spread with most oddsmakers closing that game with the Rebels at +3.5.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
The Rebels may have had eleven losses on the year, yet they had an impressive list of victories against Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas in conference play. They beat BYU, Louisville, and Colorado State in non-conference play before a statement victory against Iowa State as a five-point underdog in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Mississippi shot 58.2% from the field against the Cyclones, and they had covered the point spread in five of their last seven games after playing a game where they scored 85 or more points. They had covered the point spread in five of their last six games after pulling off an upset win in their previous game.
What makes head coach Chris Beard’s team tough to play is their ability to win the turnover battle. When they had the basketball, they only turned the ball over in 12.9% of their possessions, ranking third best in the country. They forced turnovers in 20.3% of their opponents’ possessions, ranking 33rd in the country. The Rebels had covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games on the road against non-conference opponents. They had covered the point spread in nine of their last fourteen games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. They had covered the point spread in all five of their games on a neutral court when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog or as a pick ‘em.
Michigan State faced a difficult challenge against the style of defense that Ole Miss plays. Beard’s defensive philosophy is to take away the middle of the court. His defenders try to force the opposing players to the baseline and the sidelines to use the out-of-bounds as an extra defender. One of the most effective ways to confront this type of defensive scheme is to get the ball-handler in isolation and then space the floor to either unclog the middle or find open areas. The Spartans' offense was predicated on ball movement. They had an assist rate of 61.1% of their made field goals, the 17th-highest mark in the country. Yet ball movement does not necessarily penetrate a clogged middle. Head coach Tom Izzo rarely relies on isolation plays. His team ranked 342nd in the frequency of isolation plays coming off of passes, and they ranked 337th in offensive efficiency from those isolation plays.
Michigan State won for the tenth time in their last eleven games with a 71-63 victory against New Mexico in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Yet of concern in that game was that their freshman phenom, Jase Richardson, only scored 6 points and missed all five of his 3-point shot attempts. Richardson jump-started the Spartans' scoring attack when he entered the starting lineup in early February. He was making 40.4% of his 3-pointers. He had played twelve straight games where he scored 10 or more points. He might have just had an off night, or the freshman may have struggled with the pressure of the NCAA tournament. If he is not hitting his 3s, Michigan State could be in grave trouble since they only make 31.0% of their shots from the 3-point line, ranking 323rd in the country. They only take 32.7% of their shots from 3-point land. That mark ranked 329th in the country and far below the national average of teams taking 39.0% of their shots from the 3-point line.
Ole Miss was limiting their opponents to 32.5% shooting from 3-point range, ranking 98th in the country. The Spartans were one of the best rebounding teams in the country. They rebound 35.8% of their missed shots, ranking 19th in the country. Yet Michigan State usually loses the turnover battle. They only forced turnovers 16.2% of the time, ranking 245th in the country. In Big Ten play, they turned the ball over 16.7% of the time, ranking 13th in the conference. Given their lack of 3-point shooting, rebounding may not be enough to cover the point spread against this tested Rebels team that wins the turnover battle.
The Spartans survived this Sweet Sixteen showdown, yet they only won by a 73-70 score. Ole Miss covered the point spread with most oddsmakers closing that game with the Rebels at +3.5.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
