It’s already week nine of the college football season. Where does the time go anyways? I wanted to take a look at a few teams and examine three teams I believe are overvalued in the betting market right now. We’ll look at why they might be overvalued and their remaining schedule. These are not in any specific order.

BYU Cougars (6-1 ATS) BYU is having a really good season. They are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the number. I think there are several signs of regression in their statistics though. BYU is 59th in offensive success rate. They have been reliant on being excellent in the red zone (which can be random) and hitting explosive plays. Defensively, BYU is 82nd in defensive line yards. They are 79th in yards per carry allowed. The run defense will be exposed by top rushing attacks. Jake Retzlaff has a history of turning it over and he has been fortunate to not turn it over more several times this year.

Remaining Schedule: at UCF, at Utah, Kansas, at Arizona State, Houston

There isn’t a layup of a game on this schedule. The Utah game doesn’t look nearly as imposing as it would have before their injury woes. Arizona State on the road is a tough and Skattebo will be running a lot on this BYU defense.

Illinois Fighting Illini (5-1-1 ATS) Illinois is 6-1 straight up and 5-1-1 ATS this year. Bret Bielema’s team is certainly better than preseason expectations, but I don’t think they are as good as many believe they are now. Illinois is 69th in the nation in yards per play margin. They are +7 in turnover margin. Luke Altmeyer has thrown only one interception this year despite having 9 turnover worthy plays according to PFF. 

The Illinois defense is 112th in success rate allowed. They are 124th in defensive line yards. Illinois has already allowed 20 sacks on offense. This isn’t the profile of a really good team.

Remaining Schedule: at Oregon, Minnesota, Michigan State, at Rutgers, at Northwestern

The rest of the schedule is fairly easy outside of the game at Oregon. Still, I think laying points with this team is dangerous given their clear weaknesses. 

Memphis Tigers (4-3 ATS) Memphis is 6-1 straight up this year, but they aren’t playing like a top notch team. Memphis is +10 in turnover margin this season. They have recovered 9 fumbles lost by the opposition this year, which is the most in the country. Memphis is only 60th in the nation in yards per play margin though, and they have played the 117th toughest schedule in the country (very easy) according to Jeff Sagarin. 

Memphis’ defense is giving up loads of explosive plays. Opponents have 33 plays of 20 yards or more on them already this year. The Memphis passing game is 87th in pass play success rate on the season. 

Remaining schedule: Charlotte, at UTSA, Rice, UAB, at Tulane

This is an easy schedule the rest of the way too on the whole. The game at Tulane could be a massive one for both teams! Memphis has played down to weak opponents in the past couple years though, so I’m cautious laying big numbers with them.