We are two weeks into the college football season. Underdogs are 101-77-2 ATS to start out the season. That is 56.7% ATS. Just start blindly betting all underdogs right? Easy! If you’ve been betting for very long, you know it isn’t that easy.

Underdogs have cashed at a high rate so far this year, but the oddsmakers and the marketplace in general are quick to react to things like this. You’ll start paying a sort of tax on the underdogs. The more the word gets out that underdogs are cashing at a high rate, the worse the prices on those underdogs will get.

Why have underdogs cashed at such a high rate so far this year? First, the under is hitting 56% of the time so far this year. We know that unders and underdogs are correlated in general, so that is a big help. Second, there have been several rule changes in college football. The two minute timeout shouldn’t make any difference to ATS bets. The helmet communications could have an impact of some kind. The fact that both offenses and defenses can communicate with their staffs have led to some changes. It has slowed the overall pace of the game down. A slower pace lends itself to unders and underdogs. The defenses have possibly been able to adjust a bit better.

We’ve seen the market move toward the under in a lot of games in week three. I don’t think the under will continue to be a free wager. I also  don’t think the underdog will continue to cover at this rate. This isn’t some really small market in a third world country. There is a lot of money coming into the college football betting market. 

What to do now? I would closely watch the movement of the marketplace as a whole. Do underdogs continue to take money? If so, look to grab favorites later in the week instead of earlier. If you like a large underdog, I would look to take that earlier in the week than normal in the short term. 

You have to be willing to make adjustments quickly in college football, but you don’t want to change your whole betting strategy based on a couple of weeks of data.