by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Monday, Mar 31, 2025
Copa Libertadores is back for the season of 2025 with the first games of the group stage starting on Tuesday, April 1. Botafogo is the defending champion from last season and the tournament has been dominated by Brasilian clubs over the last few years. A Brasilian club has won this competition the last 6 straight years, and the Final has been 2 Brasilian clubs in 4 of the last 5 years. There has not been a repeat champion since Palmeiras won B2B in 2020 and 2021. Now with the group stage starting up, it is time to see who has the best chance of taking home the Copa Libertadores Trophy this season. 


To Win Outright

Flamengo +400: Flamengo is coming into this season with the best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. Flamengo is always a big favorite in this competition as one of the biggest clubs in all of Brasil. The last time they won this competition was back in 2022, and they have won the trophy twice in the last 6 years as well as being a runner up in 2021. Flamengo always has a lot of quality in their squad, but they have added a few more quality players for this season and now have a lot of depth to lean on as well. They are going to need that depth to make a deep run in this competition, and they will be helped by the fact that they are in a weaker group that they should dominate. They have also been in great form as they dominated the Carioca and won it all by beating Fluminense in the Final. Copa Libertadores is always a big focus for this team and after falling short the last 2 seasons, they will be more focused on making a deep run this year. Flamengo has the quality and the depth to win it all this year, and they are by far the most talented team in the competition coming into this season. Flamengo has some value at this price to lift the trophy this season. 


Palmeiras +450: Palmeiras is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. Palmeiras is always a big threat in this competition as they are one of the biggest clubs in Brasil and always have one of the best squads, similar to Flamengo. Palmeiras has been very good in this competition over the years as well, winning twice in the last 5 years as they won it B2B in 2020 and 2021. They have a lot of quality and depth in their squad as they have brought in lots of talent from both European and South American clubs. Palmeiras is always going to be a big threat in this competition with the money they spend and this competition is always going to be a focus for them as well. They are not coming into the competition in great form though as they did lose in the Final of the Paulista Serie A1 to Corinthians. They should be able to finish atop their group in the group stage and there are not many teams that can give them trouble, but they did struggle to win matches quite a bit against Brasileirao clubs in the Paulista Serie A1 and those draws will hurt them as they get deeper into the competition, leaving matches up to chance with penalties. Palmeiras is a very good team and there are not many teams that can beat them, but there are some teams that they struggle to beat and eventually they will run into one that gets the better of them. There is not a lot of value in Palmeiras at this price since there are better options for teams to win the tournament. 


Botafogo +650: Botafogo is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. Botafogo is the defending champion of this competition as they beat Atletico Mineiro 3-1 in the Final last season, but they have not been in great form since winning the competition. They lost some of that talent that took them so far and they have lost every trophy they have played for since then. They lost 3-0 to Pachuca in their 1st game of the FIFA Club World Cup, lost 3-1 to Flamengo in the Supercopa do Brasil, and they lost 4-0 on aggregate to Copa Sudamericana champions Racing Club in the CONMEBOL Recopa. They were not in great form in the Carioca either, failing to even make the playoffs. Botafogo has been very dominant in Brasil over the last 2 seasons, but only 2 clubs have been able to repeat the Copa Libertadores Title in the last 9 years and both of those clubs are the 2 biggest in Brasil, Flamengo and Palmeiras, so it is unlikely that Botafogo repeats this season. The still have the quality as well as the depth and experience to make a deep run, but they also won the Brasileirao last season so they have a major target on their back this year and will get the best effort of every team they play. Botafogo had a special season last year, but they are unlikely to repeat that and eventually they will run into a better team that gets the better of them in this competition as they have struggled in meaningful competitions since winning the Copa Libertadores Title. There is no real value in Botafogo to repeat as champions at this price. 


River Plate +800: River Plate is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. River Plate is one of the biggest clubs in all of Argentina and they are the last non-Brasilian team to win this competition, beating Boca Juniors back in the 2018 Final. River Plate is also 4th on the all-time list with 4 Copa Libertadores Titles which is more than any single Brasilian club, but the competition has been dominated by Brasilian clubs the last 6 years and that does not look to be changing any time soon. River Plate has been very disappointing in this competition over the last few years, and they have not even been that dominant in their own domestic league either. They do have a lot of quality in their squad as well as a lot of depth, but a lot of that is in the midfield and on defense. They have a very good defense that does not allow many goals and that will take them far in this competition, but they also have a very weak attack that is going to be a big problem the deeper they go. They are not off to a great start this season in the Liga Profesional de Futbol either. River Plate is also in a very difficult group with 3 teams from weaker leagues, but those 3 teams are some of the best in their respective leagues and will not go down easily in the group. River Plate needs to make a lot of improvements, specifically with their attack, if they want to be a real contender in this competition. In their current state, this is not a team that can win this competition so there is no real value in River Plate at this price. 


Racing Club +850: Racing Club is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. Racing Club is the current Copa Sudamericana champion from last season and they also won the CONMEBOL Recopa over Botafogo, 4-0 on aggregate. They do not have a lot of experience playing in this specific competition though, and they only have 1 Copa Libertadores Title in their club history. They have not been in good form to start the new season in the Liga Profesional de Futbol either. They are dominating the way they did last season, and they have struggled a lot more away from home which is going to be a problem in this group stage. Their group is not a slam dunk win for them as they have 2 quality teams, 1 from Brasil and 1 from Chile, who both know how to make runs in this competition. They do not have the quality that they had in their squad last season either. Part of the reason they won Copa Sudamericana last season is because they were playing against much weaker clubs who play in much weaker leagues, but now they are in the big leagues and they just do not match up well against some of the stronger teams they could face down the line. There is no real value in Racing Club to lift the trophy at this price. 


São Paulo +900: São Paulo is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. São Paulo is the most decorated Brasilian club in this competition with 3 Copa Libertadores Titles and 3 times runner up, but it has been a while since they won this competition. The last time they won was back in 2005 and they have not been back to the final since the very next year when they lost in the 2006 Final to Internacional. They dominated their group in the group stage last season and lost in the quarter-final to eventual champions Botafogo. They did have a surge of good play last season which got them into 6th place in the Brasileirao, but they are not a very consistent team. They are very reliant on winning matches at home and have not performed nearly as well away from home. That is going to be a big problem in this competition as they do not have the strongest attack either. They made it to the Semi-Final of the Paulista Serie A1 before losing to Palmeiras, but they did not have a great season as they did not string many wins together. Their consistency and weaker attack will come back to bite them the deeper they go into this competition. There is no real value in São Paulo to win this competition at this price. 


Internacional +1000: Internacional is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. Internacional has only won this competition twice in their history, winning in 2006 and in 2010. Internacional has been building a competitive team over the last few years now and really started to trend upward when they picked up Enner Valencia. Now they have made some big moves for this season and have a squad riddled with quality and depth at every position. That depth is going to be big for them to make a deep run in this competition, and they have been in great form to start the season. They dominated the Gaucho and ended up winning in the Final against Gremio. They have a very good defense that does not give up many goals, but they also have a very strong attack that can find the net as well. Internacional has put together a very good team for this season and this could finally be the year that they take a big step and start to dominate. They are going to be a big threat in this competition this year with the quality and the depth they have. Internacional has a lot of value here as a dark horse to win this competition. 


Recommendation

Copa Libertadores is the most desired competition in South America for these clubs to win, but only a few clubs actually have the quality and the depth to make a run and win it all. The competition has been dominated by Brasilian clubs over the last 6 years and that is unlikely to change this year with the current landscape, but there has been a different winner each of the last 4 years so that does open the door for some of these other Brasilian clubs. Flamengo is still the best team in the competition coming into this season and they are going to have the hunger to do well so there is some value in Flamengo at +400 to win it all, but Internacional could be a sneaky dominant team in all competitions this season so there is a lot of value in Internacional at +1000 to win this competition as a dark horse. Flamengo at +400 and Internacional at +1000 are the 2 best options to go with.


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