by Team Del Genio
Friday, Jan 31, 2025During the grind of the NBA regular season, it is common that every game of every night involves missing players due to either injury or load management. Successful handicapping of the NBA requires checking the injury and availability reports and staying updated on those statuses. When productive scorers are expected to not take the court for a game, some bettors may be tempted to take the under. While that makes sense, it may not be a wise assumption. These circumstances came into play on Thursday in the game between the Houston Rockets and the Memphis Grizzlies.
Both of these teams were missing injured stars in that game, yet we concluded that both those developments may help produce a higher-scoring game despite the betting market pushing the over/under number down with those absent players.
The Memphis Grizzlies were without Ja Morant who is dealing with a shoulder injury. He was averaging 22.3 points per game at the time. Yet when he is off the court, the Grizzlies still score at 116.2 points per 100 possession rate, which is just 0.9 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is on the court. Memphis will miss his defensive presence as they give up 4.1 more points per 100 possessions when Morant is off the court.
Houston was without Alperen Sengun for that game as he was dealing with a calf injury. The Rockets would miss his 19.1 points per game scoring average, and they score 6.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is off the court than when he is on the court. Yet they average more than three more possessions per game when he is off the court playing at a quicker pace.
The result was a high-scoring game that Memphis won by a 120-119 score. The oddsmakers installed the over/under in the 223.5-point range before tip-off. The Rockets raced out in the first quarter by scoring 38 points and went into the second quarter with a five-point lead. They went into halftime with 66 points and a 15-point lead. Yet the Grizzlies scored 66 points in the second half as they rallied for the victory. The final score finished over the total.
The lessons from this case study regarding betting NBA over/unders are three-fold. Bettors should not simply assume that the absence of productive scorers will produce a lower-scoring game. Using analytics, prospective bettors on this game should investigate the following factors:
(1) How much of an impact does the absence of the player have on the team’s scoring efficiency? On/off-court offensive efficiency data helps to answer this question.
(2) How much of an impact does the absence of the player have on the team’s defensive efficiency? Offense is only half of the over/under final score equation. The loss of a player’s defensive contributions could overwhelm the help they offer on offense.
(3) How much of an impact does the absence of the player have on the team’s pace of play? Increased or decreased offensive/defensive efficiency does not address the entire scoring picture since the number of expected possessions from the pace of play is a multiplier in final score projections. The loss of an elite offensive scorer may not lead to a lower-scoring game if the team plays at a much faster pace with more scoring possessions when the player is off the court.
In all instances, these factors need to be considered in relation to the over/under number that the oddsmakers installed for the game. Betting the over in an expected higher-scoring game in a contest missing scoring starts is counter-productive if the oddsmakers already overcompensated by installing an unusually high over/under number. In the instance of this Rockets/Grizzlies game, the oddsmakers initially installed the over/under in the 236.5 range and lowered the number as injury updates came out (and the market responded). Betting the over was a reasonable conclusion in response to that number and the line movement moving in the opposite direction.
Good luck - TDG.
Both of these teams were missing injured stars in that game, yet we concluded that both those developments may help produce a higher-scoring game despite the betting market pushing the over/under number down with those absent players.
The Memphis Grizzlies were without Ja Morant who is dealing with a shoulder injury. He was averaging 22.3 points per game at the time. Yet when he is off the court, the Grizzlies still score at 116.2 points per 100 possession rate, which is just 0.9 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is on the court. Memphis will miss his defensive presence as they give up 4.1 more points per 100 possessions when Morant is off the court.
Houston was without Alperen Sengun for that game as he was dealing with a calf injury. The Rockets would miss his 19.1 points per game scoring average, and they score 6.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is off the court than when he is on the court. Yet they average more than three more possessions per game when he is off the court playing at a quicker pace.
The result was a high-scoring game that Memphis won by a 120-119 score. The oddsmakers installed the over/under in the 223.5-point range before tip-off. The Rockets raced out in the first quarter by scoring 38 points and went into the second quarter with a five-point lead. They went into halftime with 66 points and a 15-point lead. Yet the Grizzlies scored 66 points in the second half as they rallied for the victory. The final score finished over the total.
The lessons from this case study regarding betting NBA over/unders are three-fold. Bettors should not simply assume that the absence of productive scorers will produce a lower-scoring game. Using analytics, prospective bettors on this game should investigate the following factors:
(1) How much of an impact does the absence of the player have on the team’s scoring efficiency? On/off-court offensive efficiency data helps to answer this question.
(2) How much of an impact does the absence of the player have on the team’s defensive efficiency? Offense is only half of the over/under final score equation. The loss of a player’s defensive contributions could overwhelm the help they offer on offense.
(3) How much of an impact does the absence of the player have on the team’s pace of play? Increased or decreased offensive/defensive efficiency does not address the entire scoring picture since the number of expected possessions from the pace of play is a multiplier in final score projections. The loss of an elite offensive scorer may not lead to a lower-scoring game if the team plays at a much faster pace with more scoring possessions when the player is off the court.
In all instances, these factors need to be considered in relation to the over/under number that the oddsmakers installed for the game. Betting the over in an expected higher-scoring game in a contest missing scoring starts is counter-productive if the oddsmakers already overcompensated by installing an unusually high over/under number. In the instance of this Rockets/Grizzlies game, the oddsmakers initially installed the over/under in the 236.5 range and lowered the number as injury updates came out (and the market responded). Betting the over was a reasonable conclusion in response to that number and the line movement moving in the opposite direction.
Good luck - TDG.
