by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Friday, Jan 31, 2025
The new League Phase for Europa League has concluded and the competition will now be moving on to the Knockout Rounds. The teams that finished in the top 8 of the League Phase have been given an automatic bid to the Round of 16 while the teams that finished in places 9 through 24 will be playing in a two leg playoff to decide who qualifies for the Round of 16. The playoff round will be starting on February 13 so now it is time to see who has the best chance of these last 24 teams at lifting the Europa League Title this season.


To Win Outright

Manchester United +450: Man Utd is coming out of the League Phase with the best chance at claiming the Europa League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Man Utd finished the League Phase in 3rd place at 5-3-0, scoring 16 goals in their 8 matches and allowing 9 goals in those. They have been in much better form recently as they finished the League Phase strong, but they have also been a very inconsistent team. They have not been performing well in their own domestic league as they are in the bottom half of the Premier League table, and that will translate into this competition as well. They had an awful start to the season and had to fire their manager, then they got off to a great start under the new manager, but now they are right back at square one as they have dropped some points in matches that they should not have. Man Utd has been too unpredictable from match to match this season, they have been able to dominate some of the weaker teams they have faced, but they will eventually run into a stronger team that gives them trouble. They have a lot of quality in their squad, but they have not been able to put it all together over long stretches of play and that will hurt them the deeper they get into this competition. They may be the favorite to win this competition, but they do not have the best squad in the tournament so there is no real value to take them at this price. 


Tottenham +500: Tottenham is coming out of the League Phase with the next best chance at claiming the Europa League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Tottenham finished the League Phase in 4th place at 5-2-1, scoring 17 goals in their 8 matches while allowing 9 goals in those. They were very good at home in this competition, but they were not great in their away matches, specifically on defense as they allowed 7 goals in their 4 away matches. They have been a very inconsistent team this season as they are currently sitting in the bottom 6 of their own domestic league, and the team seems to be getting worse each year under Ange Postecoglou. The quality is there for them to perform well, but they have not been able to put it together on a consistent basis. They also have a very high line on defense which has gotten them into a lot of trouble against faster and more dynamic teams. They will not have to play in the playoff round which gives them an advantage, but the teams that are going to give them trouble in this competition are not teams they are going to face in the Round of 16. Their journey will get harder the deeper they go into this tournament, especially since they could have to focus more on the Premier League if they get any closer to the relegation zone. Tottenham is certainly one of the more talented teams left in this competition, but they have been too inconsistent to make a deep run and they do not have the best squad left in the tournament either. There is no real value in Tottenham to lift the trophy at this price. 


Athletic Bilbao +550: Athletic Bilbao is coming out of the League Phase with the next best chance at claiming the Europa League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Athletic Bilbao finished the League Phase in 2nd place at 6-1-1, scoring 15 goals in their 8 matches while allowing 7 goals in those. They have been one of the better defensive teams in this competition which will carry them far, but they also have a balanced attack that scores goals when they need to. They have been a very good team in their domestic league as well, currently sitting in the top 4 of La Liga, and they have been one of the better defensive teams in Spain this season as well. Spanish teams have done very well in this competition over the last decade so they have that going for them, but being in the top 4 of La Liga could take its toll on them down the stretch as Athletic Bilbao will have to remain focused on both competitions deep into the season. They have one of the more talented squads in this competition as well and might just be the best team left in it. They had the best home record in the League Phase and they were not bad in their away matches either. That is going to be a key piece for them as they will be able to take advantage of their home matches and will always give themselves a chance despite the away leg. Between their defense and the form they have been in, there is a lot of value in Athletic Bilbao to win this competition. 


Lazio +700: Lazio is coming out of the League Phase with the next best chance at claiming the Europa League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Lazio finished the League Phase at the top of the table, going 6-1-1 and they scored 17 goals in their 8 matches while only allowing 5 goals in those. They had the 2nd best defense in the League Phase and that will carry them far in this tournament, but that has not been the case in their own domestic league. Their defense has actually been much worse in Serie A this year, allowing 30 goals in their 22 matches so far, and that could be a big problem they face as their defense might not hold up well against the stronger teams they face as they get deeper into the competition. They also allowed 3 of their 5 goals in the League Phase at home and could get themselves into trouble away from home if they are not dominating their home legs in each round. They did have the best away record in the League Phase which will be a big positive for them, and the defending champion is also an Italian club in Atalanta, but Lazio had a lot of their success come in the winter months and now they have fallen out of form recently. Lazio does have one of the more talented squads left in the tournament and there is a bit of value in them to win at this price since their defense has been good in the competition, but there are better teams that they have not had to face yet in the League Phase, especially since 3 of their opponents finished in the bottom 4 of the League Phase and 4 of their opponents failed to qualify in the top 24. Lazio is not the best option to lift the trophy this year. 


Olympiacos +1800: Olympiacos is not coming out of the League Phase with the next best chance at claiming the Europa League Title this year according to the oddsmakers, but they do have some value here as a dark horse. They finished the League Phase in 7th place at 4-3-1, scoring 9 goals in their 8 matches while only allowing 3 goals in those. Their attack has struggled in this competition as they have not been scoring many goals, but they had the best defense in the League Phase which can carry them far. They also have some experience from last season as they were the Conference League champions and had to take down some quality opponents on their way to the Final. They are not the best squad left in the competition by any means, but they have a very good defense and the championship pedigree from winning the Conference League last year. They do not have to play in the playoff round either so that is a big advantage for them as they will have a weaker path with their seed, and these competitions mean a lot more to these smaller clubs like Olympiacos as they are actually striving to win the Title while some of the bigger clubs are just using this competition as a stepping stone to Champions League and are not as focused on it. Olympiacos has the potential to be a dangerous team that goes deep in this competition and they did catch some bigger clubs off guard last season. Olympiacos has a lot of value as a dark horse at +1800.


Recommendation

The Europa League is a lot more wide open as there are many teams that can make a deep run due to the focus of some of these bigger clubs in the competition. There is not really a dominant team left in the competition either and since there are no more Champions League drop downs, this tournament is really anyone’s game. Lazio is not a bad option at +700 with the way they performed in the League Phase, but they are not the most trustworthy team in these competitions. With all things considered, Athletic Bilbao at +550 is the best option to go with for a team to lift the trophy, and Olympiacos at +1800 has a lot of value as a dark horse. Athletic Bilbao at +550 and Olympiacos at +1800 are the 2 best options to go with for value. 


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