by Team Del Genio
Friday, Jan 31, 2025In handicapping the NHL in the regular season, it is important to appreciate the context that may have played a role in explaining a team’s recent losing streak. This was the case for us on Wednesday when we backed the New Jersey Devils in their home game against Philadelphia.
The Devils had the opportunity to avenge a 4-2 loss at Philadelphia against this Flyers team from two days earlier. They had won nine of their last ten games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent this season. They had won five of their eight games this year following a loss to a division rival. They had won two games in a row before the loss earlier this week as they were showing some signs of life after a difficult stretch on the road.
The Devils went on a six-game road trip from December 28th through January 9th where they won only one time in their six games. They were still in third place in the Metropolitan Division with 62 points. They were coming back home where they were averaging 3.1 goals per game and holding their opponents to 2.5 goals per game. They had won seven of their last ten games on their home ice. They had won three of the four games at home this season when the oddsmakers installed the over/under at 5.5.
Injuries have played a role in their recent slide yet Jack Hughes is healthy again. New Jersey was still without injured Nico Hischier on the blue line and goaltender Jacob Markstrom. Backup goaltender Jake Allen has stepped in for Markstrom’s absence. He was a 2-1-0 record in his three starts since that injury although he will have revenge on his mind after Monday’s result when he gave up two first-period goals and stopped 22 of the 25 shots during that game. New Jersey had beaten nine of the fourteen opponents they have played this season with a winning percentage in the 40% to 49% range, and they had won five of those seven games at home.
Philadelphia ended a two-game losing streak before their victory on Monday. The Flyers had won only three times in their last eleven games after a win at home in their previous game. With 52 points, they were tied for fifth place in the Metropolitan Division. They hit the road where they are giving up 3.6 goals per game. They had won eight times in their twenty-one games on the road. They had beaten seven of their last twenty-two opponents with winning records this year, and they have only done that three times in their eleven games on the road. Samuel Ersson was their goaltender tonight after stopping 31 of the 33 shots he faced against the Devils on Monday. Yet on the road, he only had a 2.84 goals-against average and a .888 save percentage.
Philadelphia was undermanned in this game with defenseman Yegor Zamula doubtful with an undisclosed injury and forward Sean Couturier questionable with an illness. Couturier has scored eight goals and added 16 assists this year. The Flyers needed his offense against a Devils team that only allows 25.6 shots per game. Philadelphia had won two of their last ten games against opponents who only give up 26.5 or fewer shots per game. They had only pulled off twelve upsets in their thirty-four games this year when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog.
In the rematch on Wednesday, neither team scored a goal in the first period. Ondrej Palat scored in the opening minute of the second quarter for the Devils with a power-play goal, and New Jersey went on to score three more goals in that period including a second power-play goal from Nathan Bastian. Hughes added a fifth goal in the third period and the Devils walked away with a 5-0 victory. Allen got the shutout after stopping all 24 shots he faced.
Some bettors might have assumed that the Devils' recent losing streak was evidence that they were taking a step back. Yet a look at their recent schedule should have given pause given a challenging road trip accounting for most of their losses. Their recent injuries certainly played a role as well. Wednesday’s opportunity to avenge a recent loss back on their home ice was a good spot for what is still a good New Jersey team.
Good luck - TDG.
The Devils had the opportunity to avenge a 4-2 loss at Philadelphia against this Flyers team from two days earlier. They had won nine of their last ten games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent this season. They had won five of their eight games this year following a loss to a division rival. They had won two games in a row before the loss earlier this week as they were showing some signs of life after a difficult stretch on the road.
The Devils went on a six-game road trip from December 28th through January 9th where they won only one time in their six games. They were still in third place in the Metropolitan Division with 62 points. They were coming back home where they were averaging 3.1 goals per game and holding their opponents to 2.5 goals per game. They had won seven of their last ten games on their home ice. They had won three of the four games at home this season when the oddsmakers installed the over/under at 5.5.
Injuries have played a role in their recent slide yet Jack Hughes is healthy again. New Jersey was still without injured Nico Hischier on the blue line and goaltender Jacob Markstrom. Backup goaltender Jake Allen has stepped in for Markstrom’s absence. He was a 2-1-0 record in his three starts since that injury although he will have revenge on his mind after Monday’s result when he gave up two first-period goals and stopped 22 of the 25 shots during that game. New Jersey had beaten nine of the fourteen opponents they have played this season with a winning percentage in the 40% to 49% range, and they had won five of those seven games at home.
Philadelphia ended a two-game losing streak before their victory on Monday. The Flyers had won only three times in their last eleven games after a win at home in their previous game. With 52 points, they were tied for fifth place in the Metropolitan Division. They hit the road where they are giving up 3.6 goals per game. They had won eight times in their twenty-one games on the road. They had beaten seven of their last twenty-two opponents with winning records this year, and they have only done that three times in their eleven games on the road. Samuel Ersson was their goaltender tonight after stopping 31 of the 33 shots he faced against the Devils on Monday. Yet on the road, he only had a 2.84 goals-against average and a .888 save percentage.
Philadelphia was undermanned in this game with defenseman Yegor Zamula doubtful with an undisclosed injury and forward Sean Couturier questionable with an illness. Couturier has scored eight goals and added 16 assists this year. The Flyers needed his offense against a Devils team that only allows 25.6 shots per game. Philadelphia had won two of their last ten games against opponents who only give up 26.5 or fewer shots per game. They had only pulled off twelve upsets in their thirty-four games this year when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog.
In the rematch on Wednesday, neither team scored a goal in the first period. Ondrej Palat scored in the opening minute of the second quarter for the Devils with a power-play goal, and New Jersey went on to score three more goals in that period including a second power-play goal from Nathan Bastian. Hughes added a fifth goal in the third period and the Devils walked away with a 5-0 victory. Allen got the shutout after stopping all 24 shots he faced.
Some bettors might have assumed that the Devils' recent losing streak was evidence that they were taking a step back. Yet a look at their recent schedule should have given pause given a challenging road trip accounting for most of their losses. Their recent injuries certainly played a role as well. Wednesday’s opportunity to avenge a recent loss back on their home ice was a good spot for what is still a good New Jersey team.
Good luck - TDG.
