by Hollywood Sports
Friday, Jan 31, 2025I was worried about quarterback Sam Darnold going into the Minnesota Vikings’ Week 18 showdown with the Detroit Lions in game that would determine home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. He had been elevated into the MVP conversation that week after completing 33 of 43 passes for 377 yards and three touchdowns against the Packers.
Darnold and the Vikings got exposed in that game as the Lions held them to only 262 yards of offense despite all their injuries on defense. Detroit won the game by a 31-9 score.
There was a stretch in early November when Darnold threw five interceptions in a two-game stretch — but after playing four games in a row, many pundits concluded that this problem of turnover the ball over was mostly over. I wasn’t buying it. He threw only one interception against the Packers — but I saw several more turnover-worthy plays that he got away with in that game. That Week 18 game against the Lions was the biggest showcase in Darnold’s career — and he laid an egg by completing only 18 of 41 passes for 166 yards. He was high on many of the incompletions. He missed open receivers — most notably Jordan Addison who head coach Kevin O’Connell schemed wide open inside the five-yard line in one of the Vikings’ several Red Zone drives that came up empty.
I don’t think the problem was that Darnold was simply too amped up for this game. I think he is streaky and inconsistent. When things are going well, he plays with confidence — and acts like he won the Super Bowl afterward like he did in a post-game locker room celebration after the win against Green Bay. But when things go bad as they did in that game at Detroit, he sees ghosts and gets into a funk — and what his midseason slump demonstrated to me is that he cannot simply flip the switch. Instead, he needs steady success to clear his head of the ghosts inside.
Darnold also has some technical problems with his game. His down-the-field vision and processing are average, at best. This aspect of his game has improved from his difficult rookie season, but it is still a liability. He holds the ball too long which compounds the problem. His decision-making is a problem as well as he tends to bank on his arm talent too often. It sure helps having a wide receiver as talented as Justin Jefferson with his wide catch radius to bail out his quarterback when the throws are not on the money.
Minnesota had a 10-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession this season. They only outgained their opponents by +11.3 net Yards-Per-Game in the regular season. They reminded me of the Vikings team two years ago with Kirk Cousins at quarterback that went 11-0 in one-score games despite being outscored and outgained in the regular season. That team would then get exposed at home against Daniel Jones and a mediocre New York Giants squad in the playoffs. The common denominator in that team and now is head coach Kevin O’Connell who was in his rookie season that year. He is so good — and I have concluded that his game management and play-calling go a long way to explain their great record in close games. But there is only so much he can do — especially against great teams.
My concerns about Darnold bore out in the Vikings’ opening-round exit against the Los Angeles Rams in their wildcard playoff game. Minnesota got upset by a 27-9 score. Darnold completed 25 of 40 passes for 245 yards with a touchdown and an interception. His stat line does not do justice to how underwhelming his play was in that game. Per ESPN Research on Twitter/X at halftime of that game: “Sam Darnold has 8 overthrows tonight, the second-most for a game in his career. The only other game with more was in Week 7 of 2019 when he had 12 while with the Jets vs. the Patriots. (You know what game that was.).”
The game ESPN was referencing in the parenthetical was the one where Darnold later admitted to seeing “ghosts” in the pocket.
I still think Darnold is one of the top 32 quarterbacks in the NFL. Someone will sign him to a contract in free agency. But he cost himself perhaps as high as a $45 million per year contract with how he played in his most important two games of the season. Market demand may help him receive a contract offer similar to the one Baker Mayfield signed with Tampa Bay which got him $30 million per season.
But certainly, the wild speculation in December that the Vikings might be willing to trade away rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy for draft capital in order to sign Darnold to a long-term contract was premature and an overreaction to short-term results. Imagine what O’Connell can do with McCarthy — who remains on a rookie deal which gives the team more salary cap flexibility. Minnesota’s signing of Daniel Jones once he was released by the New York Giants gave them some potential insurance at quarterback. Perhaps O’Connell can resurrect Jones’ career as he did Darnold’s. Stockpiling quarterback talent — especially at a low cost — is smart. Creating more viable options is savvy, especially with McCarthy coming off knee surgery.
But this is likely McCarthy’s team moving forward.
Best of luck — Frank.
Darnold and the Vikings got exposed in that game as the Lions held them to only 262 yards of offense despite all their injuries on defense. Detroit won the game by a 31-9 score.
There was a stretch in early November when Darnold threw five interceptions in a two-game stretch — but after playing four games in a row, many pundits concluded that this problem of turnover the ball over was mostly over. I wasn’t buying it. He threw only one interception against the Packers — but I saw several more turnover-worthy plays that he got away with in that game. That Week 18 game against the Lions was the biggest showcase in Darnold’s career — and he laid an egg by completing only 18 of 41 passes for 166 yards. He was high on many of the incompletions. He missed open receivers — most notably Jordan Addison who head coach Kevin O’Connell schemed wide open inside the five-yard line in one of the Vikings’ several Red Zone drives that came up empty.
I don’t think the problem was that Darnold was simply too amped up for this game. I think he is streaky and inconsistent. When things are going well, he plays with confidence — and acts like he won the Super Bowl afterward like he did in a post-game locker room celebration after the win against Green Bay. But when things go bad as they did in that game at Detroit, he sees ghosts and gets into a funk — and what his midseason slump demonstrated to me is that he cannot simply flip the switch. Instead, he needs steady success to clear his head of the ghosts inside.
Darnold also has some technical problems with his game. His down-the-field vision and processing are average, at best. This aspect of his game has improved from his difficult rookie season, but it is still a liability. He holds the ball too long which compounds the problem. His decision-making is a problem as well as he tends to bank on his arm talent too often. It sure helps having a wide receiver as talented as Justin Jefferson with his wide catch radius to bail out his quarterback when the throws are not on the money.
Minnesota had a 10-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession this season. They only outgained their opponents by +11.3 net Yards-Per-Game in the regular season. They reminded me of the Vikings team two years ago with Kirk Cousins at quarterback that went 11-0 in one-score games despite being outscored and outgained in the regular season. That team would then get exposed at home against Daniel Jones and a mediocre New York Giants squad in the playoffs. The common denominator in that team and now is head coach Kevin O’Connell who was in his rookie season that year. He is so good — and I have concluded that his game management and play-calling go a long way to explain their great record in close games. But there is only so much he can do — especially against great teams.
My concerns about Darnold bore out in the Vikings’ opening-round exit against the Los Angeles Rams in their wildcard playoff game. Minnesota got upset by a 27-9 score. Darnold completed 25 of 40 passes for 245 yards with a touchdown and an interception. His stat line does not do justice to how underwhelming his play was in that game. Per ESPN Research on Twitter/X at halftime of that game: “Sam Darnold has 8 overthrows tonight, the second-most for a game in his career. The only other game with more was in Week 7 of 2019 when he had 12 while with the Jets vs. the Patriots. (You know what game that was.).”
The game ESPN was referencing in the parenthetical was the one where Darnold later admitted to seeing “ghosts” in the pocket.
I still think Darnold is one of the top 32 quarterbacks in the NFL. Someone will sign him to a contract in free agency. But he cost himself perhaps as high as a $45 million per year contract with how he played in his most important two games of the season. Market demand may help him receive a contract offer similar to the one Baker Mayfield signed with Tampa Bay which got him $30 million per season.
But certainly, the wild speculation in December that the Vikings might be willing to trade away rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy for draft capital in order to sign Darnold to a long-term contract was premature and an overreaction to short-term results. Imagine what O’Connell can do with McCarthy — who remains on a rookie deal which gives the team more salary cap flexibility. Minnesota’s signing of Daniel Jones once he was released by the New York Giants gave them some potential insurance at quarterback. Perhaps O’Connell can resurrect Jones’ career as he did Darnold’s. Stockpiling quarterback talent — especially at a low cost — is smart. Creating more viable options is savvy, especially with McCarthy coming off knee surgery.
But this is likely McCarthy’s team moving forward.
Best of luck — Frank.
