by Hollywood Sports
Monday, Mar 31, 2025Alabama’s Nate Oats is a fine head coach. From his four seasons with Buffalo to now six years with the Crimson Tide, he has demonstrated that a commitment to the foundational elements of the contributions from the analytical community can raise the floor regarding expectations of success for a basketball team. But I worry that a rigid devotion to these principles can also impose a ceiling regarding regarding what a basketball team can achieve.
The case in point is Alabama’s Elite Eight encounter with Duke this season. The Crimson’s style under Oats has been consistent. On offense, his teams play fast and take almost half of their shots from behind the arc. On defense, his teams defend the perimeter and attempt to protect the rim. This approach is gospel to the analytics community, who never tire of lecturing the world that three points are more than two points and shots at the rim are higher percentage than midrange jump shots inside the arc. They get paid for such insight, which is one of the many reasons I mock many of these folks across all sports as invoking The Analytics. We get it. Not sure if this revelation reinvented the wheel as much as the price for the information. And, as Mike D’Antoni can attest, it is far from certain that simply reading The Big Book of Analytics (written but never updated in 2016) produces championships.
The Crimson Tide defense continues to be their weak link. On paper, they looked good by ranking 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Oats’ commitment to The Analytics means he wants to take away their opponent's shots from behind the arc and at the rim — but that leaves the midrange open. The Analytics say that leaves lower-percentage 2-point shots to their opponent — but that does not mean really good players still don’t make these shots at high efficiency. Alabama gets exposed by runners and floaters attacking the basket. Flagg should dominate down low. This defensive approach also allowed their opponents to rebound 29.5% of their missed shots, which ranks 161st in the nation heading into their showdown with the Blue Devils — and Duke ranks 50th in the nation by rebounding 34.3% of their misses.
Breaking the Tide’s defensive numbers down, while they ranked 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummeted to 49th in that category when playing on the road where they are surrendering +6.8 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. Against the top 50 statistical teams in the nation in terms of Adjusted Net Efficiency, they ranked 55th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, which is very telling because their drop-off is even more pronounced than other teams.
The margin for error with the Tide’s 3-point shooting is just so thin. They had surrendered 80 or more points in 10 of their last 14 games before their Elite Eight game with Duke — and six of their last 12 opponents have scored at least 88 points. Alabama had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em in the last three seasons under Oats, including both games when they were getting 6.5 to 12 points as the underdog.
When Alabama loses, it is usually by big margins because their defensive style of play gets exposed by elite offensive teams. Florida blasted them by a 104-82 score in the SEC Tournament. Five of the Crimson Tide’s eight losses — to Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, Purdue, and the Gators — were by nine or more points. And against Duke in the Elite Eight this year, they got blasted by an 85-65 score. The Blue Devils made 30 of their 57 (52.6%) shots — including 24 of their 43 shots from inside the arc. When opponents are scoring 48 points on 55.8% shooting from their 2-point shots before 3-point shooting and free throws, it will be very tough for Oats and The Analytics to overcome it.
Best of luck — Frank.
The case in point is Alabama’s Elite Eight encounter with Duke this season. The Crimson’s style under Oats has been consistent. On offense, his teams play fast and take almost half of their shots from behind the arc. On defense, his teams defend the perimeter and attempt to protect the rim. This approach is gospel to the analytics community, who never tire of lecturing the world that three points are more than two points and shots at the rim are higher percentage than midrange jump shots inside the arc. They get paid for such insight, which is one of the many reasons I mock many of these folks across all sports as invoking The Analytics. We get it. Not sure if this revelation reinvented the wheel as much as the price for the information. And, as Mike D’Antoni can attest, it is far from certain that simply reading The Big Book of Analytics (written but never updated in 2016) produces championships.
The Crimson Tide defense continues to be their weak link. On paper, they looked good by ranking 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Oats’ commitment to The Analytics means he wants to take away their opponent's shots from behind the arc and at the rim — but that leaves the midrange open. The Analytics say that leaves lower-percentage 2-point shots to their opponent — but that does not mean really good players still don’t make these shots at high efficiency. Alabama gets exposed by runners and floaters attacking the basket. Flagg should dominate down low. This defensive approach also allowed their opponents to rebound 29.5% of their missed shots, which ranks 161st in the nation heading into their showdown with the Blue Devils — and Duke ranks 50th in the nation by rebounding 34.3% of their misses.
Breaking the Tide’s defensive numbers down, while they ranked 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummeted to 49th in that category when playing on the road where they are surrendering +6.8 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. Against the top 50 statistical teams in the nation in terms of Adjusted Net Efficiency, they ranked 55th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, which is very telling because their drop-off is even more pronounced than other teams.
The margin for error with the Tide’s 3-point shooting is just so thin. They had surrendered 80 or more points in 10 of their last 14 games before their Elite Eight game with Duke — and six of their last 12 opponents have scored at least 88 points. Alabama had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em in the last three seasons under Oats, including both games when they were getting 6.5 to 12 points as the underdog.
When Alabama loses, it is usually by big margins because their defensive style of play gets exposed by elite offensive teams. Florida blasted them by a 104-82 score in the SEC Tournament. Five of the Crimson Tide’s eight losses — to Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, Purdue, and the Gators — were by nine or more points. And against Duke in the Elite Eight this year, they got blasted by an 85-65 score. The Blue Devils made 30 of their 57 (52.6%) shots — including 24 of their 43 shots from inside the arc. When opponents are scoring 48 points on 55.8% shooting from their 2-point shots before 3-point shooting and free throws, it will be very tough for Oats and The Analytics to overcome it.
Best of luck — Frank.
