by Al McMordie
Wednesday, Feb 19, 2025I love handicapping NCAA Basketball. And one of the reasons is that it is a relatively-long season (with most teams playing at least 30 regular season games), but not too long (like MLB, NBA or NHL) where the regular season games can become a bit meaningless. And this schedule provides a situational handicapper like myself a ton of money-making opportunities along the way.
One thing I like to do is play on certain teams on long losing streaks, or against certain teams on long winning streaks, as eventually these streaks will come to an end. But sometimes, we'll also have a good situation immediately after a streak ends. For example, when a college basketball team has won at least 10 games in a row, and then finally loses, I also like to fade that team off that loss. Indeed, since 1990, NCAA Basketball teams are a poor 344-407-15 (45.8% ATS) off a straight-up loss, if they had won at least their 10 previous games going into that defeat.
But even though there's nothing wrong with 407-344, we can improve our numbers greatly by filtering out opponents that are off a SU/ATS win. With those games excepted, our 407-344 stat moves to 280-197-12 (58.7% ATS). Finally, we can bring our system above the 60% mark by limiting our plays to underdog of +6 (or more) points. In that situation, our angle zooms to 180-108-6 (62.5% ATS) since 1990. So, our NCAA System of the Week is to play against a favorite of -6 (or more) points off a loss, if it won its 10 games prior to that defeat, and its opponent is not off a SU/ATS win.
On this Wednesday, we have a team to play against, and that's the Drake Bulldogs. Drake was on an 11-game winning streak before losing to Bradley, 61-59, as a 5.5-point home favorite three days ago. The Bulldogs are now laying 10.5 points to Illinois-Chicago, which won, but failed to cover the spread vs. Missouri State last Sunday. Don't be surprised if Drake does not bounce back tonight off its upset loss.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
One thing I like to do is play on certain teams on long losing streaks, or against certain teams on long winning streaks, as eventually these streaks will come to an end. But sometimes, we'll also have a good situation immediately after a streak ends. For example, when a college basketball team has won at least 10 games in a row, and then finally loses, I also like to fade that team off that loss. Indeed, since 1990, NCAA Basketball teams are a poor 344-407-15 (45.8% ATS) off a straight-up loss, if they had won at least their 10 previous games going into that defeat.
But even though there's nothing wrong with 407-344, we can improve our numbers greatly by filtering out opponents that are off a SU/ATS win. With those games excepted, our 407-344 stat moves to 280-197-12 (58.7% ATS). Finally, we can bring our system above the 60% mark by limiting our plays to underdog of +6 (or more) points. In that situation, our angle zooms to 180-108-6 (62.5% ATS) since 1990. So, our NCAA System of the Week is to play against a favorite of -6 (or more) points off a loss, if it won its 10 games prior to that defeat, and its opponent is not off a SU/ATS win.
On this Wednesday, we have a team to play against, and that's the Drake Bulldogs. Drake was on an 11-game winning streak before losing to Bradley, 61-59, as a 5.5-point home favorite three days ago. The Bulldogs are now laying 10.5 points to Illinois-Chicago, which won, but failed to cover the spread vs. Missouri State last Sunday. Don't be surprised if Drake does not bounce back tonight off its upset loss.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
