With Americans expected to place $35 billion in legal bets on NFL games this season, understanding how spreads evolve over the course of the season can offer fascinating insights into the dynamics of sports prediction models. Among the various types of bets, the spread is one of the most widely used. It levels the playing field between teams of different strengths by predicting the expected margin of victory. The spread serves as a benchmark, giving both bettors and analysts a reference point for how close or lopsided a game is expected to be. Conventional wisdom suggests that, as the NFL season progresses and more data becomes available, prediction models should produce increasingly accurate spreads. 

Research supports the idea that sportsbooks optimize spreads for profit, not accuracy.

Results of NFL games from 2014-2023 show that the [+] favorite covers the spread in 47% of games, the favorite wins but fails to cover the spread in 16% of games, the underdog wins in 34% of games, and the remaining games result in a push.

Data on historical closing spreads and game results from the 2014-2023 NFL seasons show that the home team was favored in about 63% of NFL games, with an average spread of -5.6 points. In contrast, when the home team was not favored (37% of games), the average spread was slightly lower at -4.6 points. Despite this home-field advantage in spreads, the actual outcomes reveal a more balanced picture. Home teams covered the spread in only 46% of games where they were the favorite, while away favorites covered the spread 49% of the time. This suggests that while home teams are often favored, they do not consistently outperform expectations against the spread. In about 16% of all NFL games, the favorite wins the game but fails to cover the spread.

2024 Spread Accuracy

The NFL is constantly evolving—new rookies join, veterans retire, rule changes are implemented, and new stadiums are built. As such, the past does not always serve as a perfect predictor of future outcomes. However, looking back in the first four weeks of the 2024 NFL season, we are already seeing familiar patterns emerge. So far, favorites have covered the spread in 27 games, failed to cover in 35, and 2 games ended in a push. On average, the margin of victory has been about 1.7 points below the spread.

This early trend aligns with the historical data from previous seasons, where the spread tends to overestimate the margin of victory early in the season. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, these recurring patterns provide valuable insight into how spreads play out during the rest of the weeks of the NFL season.

2024 thru week 15

Team ATS Record

Denver 11-4-0 73.3%

Minnesota 10-4-1 71.4%

LA Chargers 10-5-0 66.7%

Detroit 10-5-0 66.7%

Pittsburgh 10-6-0 62.5%

Washington 9-5-1 64.3%

Tampa Bay 9-6-0 60.0%

Buffalo 9-6-0 60.0%

Indianapolis 9-6-0 60.0%

Philadelphia 9-6-0 60.0% 

Arizona 9-6-0 60.0%

Baltimore 9-6-1 60.0%

Cincinnati 9-6-0 60.0%

Green Bay 9-6-0 60.0%

LA Rams 8-7-0 53.3% 

Kansas City 8-8-0 50.0%

Jacksonville 7-7-1 50.0% 

Chicago 7-7-2 50.0% 

Carolina 7-8-0 46.7% 

Atlanta 6-8-1 42.9%

Las Vegas 6-8-1 42.9%

New England 6-8-1  42.9%

Houston 6-8-2 42.9%

Seattle 6-9-1 40.0%

Miami 6-9-0 40.0% 

New Orleans 6-9-0 40.0%

Dallas 6-9-0 40.0% 

NY Jets 5-10-0 33.3% 

San Francisco 5-10-0 33.3% 

NY Giants 4-11-0 26.7%

Cleveland  4-11-0 26.7%

Tennessee 2-13-0 13.3%