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by Team Del Genio
Friday, Feb 28, 2025Portland State is a dark horse candidate to win the Big Sky conference tournament. They begin March in a tie for third place with Idaho State in the conference with a 9-7 record.
The Vikings had been on a two-game losing streak after losing at Weber State, 60-58, as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday, February 22nd. They hosted Montana State on Thursday night, who beat them, 74-73, on the road on February 1st at the beginning of the month. Portland State has covered the point spread in six of their seven games this season when playing with revenge from a loss to their opponent earlier in the season. They come back home where they have a 10-1 record with a net point differential of more than 22 points. They are averaging 82.2 points per game at home on 51% shooting from the field. They hold their opponents to 60.1 points per game at home on 37% shooting. The Vikings had covered the point spread in twelve of their last eight games at home going into that game, and they had covered the point spread in six of their last eight games at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite or as a pick ‘em. They had covered the point spread in eight of their last ten games at home when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 140 to 149.5. Portland State had covered the point spread in five of their last seven games against opponents winning 40% to 49% of their games.
It shaped up to be a good matchup for the Vikings. Montana State had won two games in a row before an 89-85 loss at home to Montana as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Bobcats had a 12-16 record this season going into the game, and their loss to their in-state rival Grizzlies lowered their conference record to 7-8. They had covered the point spread once in their last five games on the road after playing a game where they scored 85 or more points. Montana State has a 10-3 record at home, yet they were only 2-13 on the road with a net point differential of more than -7 points per game going into that game. They were averaging only 68.3 points per game on the road from 42% shooting. They had covered the point spread twice in their last ten games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog or as a pick ‘em, and they had covered the point spread in six of their last nineteen games on the road when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 140 to 149.5. The Vikings shoot 48.1% from the field, yet the Bobcats had covered the point spread in seven of their last nineteen games on the road against opponents who are making 45% or more of their shots from the field. Montana State had not covered the point spread in four straight games against opponents winning 51% to 60% of their games. They had covered the point spread just once in their last six games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog of up to three points or as a favorite of up to three points.
Sure enough, Portland State cruised to a 79-62 victory against Montana State (in what was our NCAA-B Game of the Month). The Vikings made 45.9% of their shots in the game and held the Bobcats to 42% shooting. It was an easy victory for Portland State because they pulled down 15 offensive rebounds and forced eight turnovers. Their ability to produce additional scoring possessions is why they should be considered a threat to win the Big Sky conference tournament. The Vikings lead the conference by forcing turnovers in 19.4% of their opponent’s possessions. They rank second in the Big Sky by rebounding 33.5% of their missed shots. With a 17-12 record overall this season going into March, they will need to win the conference tournament to make the NCAA tournament. Yet their ability to force turnovers and create second shots on the offensive glass should not discounted in a one-and-done conference tournament.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
The Vikings had been on a two-game losing streak after losing at Weber State, 60-58, as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday, February 22nd. They hosted Montana State on Thursday night, who beat them, 74-73, on the road on February 1st at the beginning of the month. Portland State has covered the point spread in six of their seven games this season when playing with revenge from a loss to their opponent earlier in the season. They come back home where they have a 10-1 record with a net point differential of more than 22 points. They are averaging 82.2 points per game at home on 51% shooting from the field. They hold their opponents to 60.1 points per game at home on 37% shooting. The Vikings had covered the point spread in twelve of their last eight games at home going into that game, and they had covered the point spread in six of their last eight games at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite or as a pick ‘em. They had covered the point spread in eight of their last ten games at home when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 140 to 149.5. Portland State had covered the point spread in five of their last seven games against opponents winning 40% to 49% of their games.
It shaped up to be a good matchup for the Vikings. Montana State had won two games in a row before an 89-85 loss at home to Montana as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Bobcats had a 12-16 record this season going into the game, and their loss to their in-state rival Grizzlies lowered their conference record to 7-8. They had covered the point spread once in their last five games on the road after playing a game where they scored 85 or more points. Montana State has a 10-3 record at home, yet they were only 2-13 on the road with a net point differential of more than -7 points per game going into that game. They were averaging only 68.3 points per game on the road from 42% shooting. They had covered the point spread twice in their last ten games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog or as a pick ‘em, and they had covered the point spread in six of their last nineteen games on the road when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 140 to 149.5. The Vikings shoot 48.1% from the field, yet the Bobcats had covered the point spread in seven of their last nineteen games on the road against opponents who are making 45% or more of their shots from the field. Montana State had not covered the point spread in four straight games against opponents winning 51% to 60% of their games. They had covered the point spread just once in their last six games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog of up to three points or as a favorite of up to three points.
Sure enough, Portland State cruised to a 79-62 victory against Montana State (in what was our NCAA-B Game of the Month). The Vikings made 45.9% of their shots in the game and held the Bobcats to 42% shooting. It was an easy victory for Portland State because they pulled down 15 offensive rebounds and forced eight turnovers. Their ability to produce additional scoring possessions is why they should be considered a threat to win the Big Sky conference tournament. The Vikings lead the conference by forcing turnovers in 19.4% of their opponent’s possessions. They rank second in the Big Sky by rebounding 33.5% of their missed shots. With a 17-12 record overall this season going into March, they will need to win the conference tournament to make the NCAA tournament. Yet their ability to force turnovers and create second shots on the offensive glass should not discounted in a one-and-done conference tournament.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
