For the first time in four seasons, we lost our NFL Game of the Year — each selection in the Super Bowl — when the Philadelphia Eagles thumped the Kansas City Chiefs by a 40-22 score. I concede that the score was not indicative of how much of a blowout that game was. 

However, three weeks later, I remain steadfast that it was an outlier game and score. I admit that I could be in complete denial. If so, I hope I discover enlightenment in my deep dives on both the Eagles and Chiefs in late summer when I do my foundational work for the 2024-2025 NFL season. 

Admittedly, something was nagging me about the situation for this game. I usually post my Report the morning after the championship games but this year only posted them the Friday late night two days before. Despite that, I remain convinced that ff these teams played ten times, I think we saw the outlier worst case scenario for KC. 

In hindsight, I think I may have underestimated the negative impact of complacency from defending champions — but I convinced myself the opportunity to three-peat overwhelmed those concerns regarding how defending champions can tend to let their guard down. Watching the game, I think Mahomes played the worst game I have ever seen him play — even after the offensive line issues. I do not even pretend to be an Xs and Os expert — but the play-calling had me scratching my head to address the offensive line issues and I have since read commentary from more informed sources sharing this view. I was well aware of the offensive line issues all season. But when they moved Joe Thuney to left tackle, the protection got significantly better (albeit at the expense of their elite inside running since Thuney was no longer at left guard). 

I double-checked afterwards: Kansas City had given up six sacks combined in their previous four games (excluding the Denver Week 18 game when the starers rested) before the Super Bowl. If Jayden Daniels could put up 36 points (and the Rams put up 405 yards with their suspect offensive line in the playoffs), then I thought Kansas City with two weeks to prepare would be fine. I was convinced Kansas City would play up-tempo to tire out the defensive line that started playing better only when Fangio cut down the snaps of all the Georgia draft picks who had been underachieving. But it didn’t happen. And Marquise Brown did not get as many snaps. I know Fangio’s two-high safety look takes away the deep ball, but you need Brown out there for it to take away the damn deep ball to open up space in the middle. 

I considered the officiating narrative to be 95% Hindsight Bias and 5% “Michael Jordan Knows How to Play the Refs”. I still do. I argued in my Report for the Super Bowl that the close wins were a feature rather than a bug (for starters, at worst, it's an argument that KC should have lost more games — not that they were due to get blown out). I thought the collection of skill position talent that was all finally healthy was the best Mahomes had at his disposal since the Tyreek Hill days — so I did not even think the “too many close wins” narrative applied to what was going to happen in February football. New England, the Pete Carroll/Russell Wilson Seahawks, and the Jordan Bulls all made a living winning close games. Those dynasties were operating at a different level where they were confident that they had the talent and brain trust to win close games.

Finally, I remain steadfast that Philly is mediocre — and one of the worst Super Bowl champions in our lifetime. I know there is talk about a dynasty already, so I may be anxious to fade them (unless my summer sober deep dive illuminates something I missed very badly). I think the Eagles got lucky to avoid Detroit. Their best win was against Baltimore before the Super Bowl —  and they avoided Kansas City, Buffalo, Detroit, and even Minnesota. To quote my Super Bowl Report after doing a bunch of work to expose all of the Eagles' close wins: 

"Their losses were to solid but flawed playoff teams, Washington and Tampa Bay, along with Atlanta early in the season. I appreciate their defense became better when rookie Cooper DeJean was inserted into the starting lineup with their base defense shifting to a 4-2-5 nickel look. But their season-long defensive stats benefitted from two games apiece against the New York Giants and Dallas (combined 10-24 record) along with contests against cupcakes like Cleveland, Carolina, New Orleans, and Jacksonville who combined for a 17-51 record. The season-ending injury last month to Nakobe Dean should not be underestimated either since he was the jack-of-all-trades linebacker that defensive coordinator Vic Fangio was featuring in his blitz packages. Quarterback Jalen Hurts will be healthier with two weeks to rest — but I am not sure he will be at full strength still regarding his mobility (outside the tush-push) given the knee injury he suffered in the playoffs. I worry that the Eagles' passing game is limited — they only passed for more than 236 yards five times this season (and two of those games were in the first month of the season). What if Hurts is only a B+ passer? Sure, I don’t want to punish Philly for evolving into a run-first team when Saquon Barkley had a career year. But if Philadelphia gets into a situation where they have to pass — either because they fall behind by more double-digits (remember their scoring woes in the first quarter) or because it is late in the game — can Hurts win the game with his arm in a facet of his game that has been off going back to the second half of last season? And this raises another point: I’m not sure this Eagles squad is battle-tested. While they were 9-2 in games decided by one-scoring possession, only four of their victories were against teams who made the playoffs (Washington twice, LA Rams, Green Bay). Remember all those cupcakes they got to play? Their remaining five wins decided by eight points or less were against New Orleans, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Carolina, and the New York Giants who all failed to win more than five games. I worry that after playing five straight games at home, the Eagles are playing their first game away from Lincoln Financial Field since December 22nd (a loss at Washington).”

I would like to see these teams play a few more times. What happens if Mahomes does not spot Philly 14 points in the first half? That was all but insurmountable. If Kansas City had the opportunity to tie or take the lead in the opening possession of the second half, is the game script simply adhering to how they win most of their games? How does the first quarter go if, after admittedly getting a favorable initial call from the officials, the next five or so coin-flip decisions from the officials do not all go the Eagles' way? Two weeks of working the refs — which is not to say that the Chiefs may have been due (but Hindsight Bias from haters) — but it does question the validity of the blowout. It was a nightmare first half and Mahomes was uncharacteristically awful with his accuracy in those opening three drives even before the pick-six and all-but second pick-six. When Kansas City cannot run the football,  they start panicking, the Eagles front smells blood, cue the blowout. 

Maybe that is lots of Copamine. Thank God the Over cashed. But I am not ready to overreact to that final score when it comes to assessing these two teams next season. 

Best of luck — Frank.