by Hollywood Sports
Friday, Feb 28, 2025Aston Villa is underachieving in the English Premier League relative to the deeper metrics. They are tied for ninth place in the table with 42 points (albeit with one more match played than Fulham who shares that spot)— but their expected points rise to 42.40. They have scored 40 goals — but their expected goals (xG) rise to 48.990. They have surrendered 45 goals — but their expected goals allowed (xGA) is slightly lower at 44.58.
Aston Villa has performed better in their return to the UEFA Champions League this year where they earned one of the top eight seeds and a bye into the Final 16 Knockout Stage — and they have a very winnable showdown with Club Brugge on deck so a Quarterfinals or better finish is very much in the card for Emery’s men.
The Villans are relatively healthy right now — and they added an important cog for their attack last month by acquiring forward Marcus Rashford on loan from Manchester United with the option to buy. He gives the starting XI another viable scorer to complement Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers.
Aston Villa has been very tough to beat at home where they have lost only once in their last 24 matches in the EPL. This season, they have an W7-D7-L1 mark at home against EPL competition — and their 28 points betray the expected 31.06 points from the predictive analytics. They have 25 goals at home — but their xG is 31.94. They have surrendered 18 goals — but their xGA drops to 15.77.
Aston Villa wanted to avenge a 3-0 loss at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea back on December 1st — but that was at the peak of the Blues best stretch all season when they were in much better health. The Villans had won seven of their last 11 matches at home at Villa Park with the other four matches resulting in draws. They came away in that showdown against the Blues with a 2-1 upset victory on February 22nd. Aston Villa surrendered the first goal in the ninth minute but finally leveled the score in the 57th minute in the second half when Marco Asensio scored from a Rashford pass who had just come on as a substitute. Asensio then scored the game-winner from another assist from Rashford in the 89th minute.
But they followed that up with a 4-1 loss at Crystal Palace in EPL action on February 25th. The Villans have a W4-D2-L7 mark on the road in the English Premier League with 14 points. Their expected points drop to 11.33 in their 13 matches on the road in the EPL. Aston Villa did return home to beat Cardiff City by a 2-0 score in their latest match in the FA Cup on Friday, February 28th.
These recent results only continue to suggest that the Villans are dangerous at home but reckless when on the road. They play their opening round match in the Round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League on the road against Club Brugge on Tuesday.
Best of luck — Frank.
Aston Villa has performed better in their return to the UEFA Champions League this year where they earned one of the top eight seeds and a bye into the Final 16 Knockout Stage — and they have a very winnable showdown with Club Brugge on deck so a Quarterfinals or better finish is very much in the card for Emery’s men.
The Villans are relatively healthy right now — and they added an important cog for their attack last month by acquiring forward Marcus Rashford on loan from Manchester United with the option to buy. He gives the starting XI another viable scorer to complement Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers.
Aston Villa has been very tough to beat at home where they have lost only once in their last 24 matches in the EPL. This season, they have an W7-D7-L1 mark at home against EPL competition — and their 28 points betray the expected 31.06 points from the predictive analytics. They have 25 goals at home — but their xG is 31.94. They have surrendered 18 goals — but their xGA drops to 15.77.
Aston Villa wanted to avenge a 3-0 loss at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea back on December 1st — but that was at the peak of the Blues best stretch all season when they were in much better health. The Villans had won seven of their last 11 matches at home at Villa Park with the other four matches resulting in draws. They came away in that showdown against the Blues with a 2-1 upset victory on February 22nd. Aston Villa surrendered the first goal in the ninth minute but finally leveled the score in the 57th minute in the second half when Marco Asensio scored from a Rashford pass who had just come on as a substitute. Asensio then scored the game-winner from another assist from Rashford in the 89th minute.
But they followed that up with a 4-1 loss at Crystal Palace in EPL action on February 25th. The Villans have a W4-D2-L7 mark on the road in the English Premier League with 14 points. Their expected points drop to 11.33 in their 13 matches on the road in the EPL. Aston Villa did return home to beat Cardiff City by a 2-0 score in their latest match in the FA Cup on Friday, February 28th.
These recent results only continue to suggest that the Villans are dangerous at home but reckless when on the road. They play their opening round match in the Round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League on the road against Club Brugge on Tuesday.
Best of luck — Frank.
