Saturday, September 14th
The Sphere - Las Vegas

The UFC returns to Las Vegas this Saturday. This time, however, the fights won't be held at the UFC Apex. Nor will they be in a casino. Instead, for the first (and perhaps only) time ever, they will take place in The Sphere. It's an extra special event and the card is loaded with exciting fights. Known as UFC Noche, it'll be a celebration of Mexican and Latin American culture and competitors. The Main Event features bantamweight champion Sean O'Malley taking on number one contender Merab Dvalishvil. The co-Main Event sees Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko square off for the third time. Additionally, there are eight other fights. Let's take a closer look at the two biggest ones. 

The bantamweight championship of the world will be up for grabs on Saturday. As of Monday, "Suga" Shane O'Malley, the champion, is a modest -130 favorite against Merab "The Machine" Dvalishvili. If betting on the over 4.5 rounds, one has to lay somewhere in the -140 to -150 range. That line suggests that this one has a fairly strong chance of going the distance. 

Off six straight wins, O'Malley is now 18-1 for his career. His lone loss came against Marlon Vera in 2020. O'Malley avenged that loss by defeating Vera this past March. At 5-foot-11, the 29-year old champ is tall for a bantamweight. Suga is a very dangerous striker. Twelve of his 18 wins have been via KO/TKO. Five came by decision and one by submission. 

Off 10 straight wins, Dvalishvili (17-4) hasn't tasted defeat since 2018. At 5-foot-6, "The Machine" is giving up a lot of height to O'Malley. Nine of his past 10 fights, including each of his past three, have been decided by the judges. With most of O'Malley's victories coming by KO, it should be mentioned that Dvalishvili has never been knocked out. Three of his four losses have been decisions, the other was by submission. 

Prediction: This should be an excellent fight. In my estimation, it's too close to call. Given Dvalishvili's tendency to go the scorecards and the fact that he has never been knocked out, the Over 4.5 rounds looks like the way to go.


The Co-Main Event 

Grasso vs. Shevchenko
Grasso -130
4.5 over -170

Valentina "Bullet" Shevchenko (24-3-1) and Alexa Grasso (16-3-1) will be meeting for a third time. Once again, the women’s flyweight title will be on the line. Shevchenko was a massive favorite (like -900 or -1000) when she first faced Grasso, last March. Grasso shocked Shevchenko and the world with one of the biggest upsets that the UFC has seen. It was a fourth round (face-crank) submission victory. Shevchenko was still favored for the rematch. The -165 line was much lower that it was for the first fight though. That was exactly one year ago, at the first Noche UFC. That one resulted in a draw.

This time, it's Grasso who is favored. If she can win, she will be considered the undisputed champion. However, if Bullet can win, it'll be 1-1-1. That might very well set up a fourth and final fight between these two. Shevchenko is now 36 years old while Grasso is 31. They both stand at 5-foot-5. Ten of Grasso's 16 victories (and two of her three losses) have come by decision. Shevchenko has eight KO's, seven submissions and eight decision victories.

Prediction: This will be another war but when the dust settles, I expect Shevchenko to score the minor upset and reclaim her belt.