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Handicapper

Amedeus Mastrangelo

League

SOCCER

Competition

Everton vs Luton Town

Time

05/03/2024 03:00 PM

Bet Type

Over / Under

Pick

Everton vs Luton Town Over 2.5 (-140) (Consensus 3)

Outcome

Loss

Analysis

Luton Town is coming into this match with a heavy trend to the over in their recent matches. They have gone over 2.5 goals in their last 4 straight as well as 5 of their last 6 matches. Their defense has been awful in these matches as they have allowed at least 2 goals in each of their last 3 as well as 5 of their last 6 matches, allowing at least 5 goals in 2 of their last 3 matches as well, but their attack has not been bad in these as they have scored at least 1 goal in each of their last 4 matches and have been averaging over 1 goal scored per match in that span. When playing at home, they have gone over 2.5 goals in their last 2 straight as well as 7 of their last 8 matches there. Their defense has still been very bad in those as they have allowed 21 goals in their last 7 matches at home, averaging 3 goals allowed per match in that span, but their attack has been scoring a lot more in those as they have scored 14 goals in their last 8 home matches, scoring 3 goals in their last 2 matches there as well. They are going up against an Everton side that has not been trending to the over in their recent matches but they have been in much better form recently. They have won their last 3 straight as well as 4 of their last 5 matches with better defense, but all 4 of those wins also came at home. They have not been away from home in a match since losing 6-0 to Chelsea in their last away match. When playing away from home, they have been trending more to the over recently as they have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3 matches. Their defense has not been great in those either as they have allowed 9 goals in their last 3 away matches. Everton is currently sitting 11 points above the relegation zone but they are not officially safe yet as 4 straight losses to end the season could still see them end up there so they are going to be pushing for a point in this match with the form they have been in. Luton Town has no choice but to push for the win here though as they are currently in the relegation zone but only 1 point behind Nottingham Forest who is out so Luton Town is going to be pushing their attack at home here as they have played much better at home and need the 3 points, not just 1. Both of the meetings between these two this season have gone over 2.5 goals and Luton Town will have more confidence in this match as they beat Everton 2-1 in the reverse fixture as well as beating them 2-1 in the FA Cup, both matches being away from home. Between these two sides, there will be enough goals in this match to push it over 2.5 goals. England Premier League: Luton Town/Everton over 2.5 goals, Rot. 200085