The new League Phase for Champions League has concluded and the competition will now be moving on to the Knockout Rounds. The teams that finished in the top 8 of the League Phase have been given an automatic bid to the Round of 16 while the teams that finished in places 9 through 24 will be playing in a two leg playoff to decide who qualifies for the Round of 16. The playoff round will be starting on February 11 so now it is time to see who has the best chance of these last 24 teams at lifting the Champions League Title this season.
To Win Outright
Liverpool +400: Liverpool is coming out of the League Phase as the team with the best chance at claiming the Champions League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. They finished the League Phase at the top with the number 1 seed, going 7-0-1 in their 8 matches. They only allowed 5 goals in those 8 matches while scoring 17 goals, and they have been a very dominant team this year as they also lead the Premier League. The quality has been there since last season, but their new manager has really given them the kick they needed to dominate all competitions they play in. They have already qualified for the Round of 16 and they will not be playing in the next round so that gives them an advantage with 8 more teams getting knocked out in the playoff round. Liverpool is going to have the best path in the tournament with their seeding, but they also have a lot of quality in their squad as well as the depth to make a deep run in this tournament. They also have a 6 point lead over 2nd place in the Premier League and they have a match in hand as well so that cushion is going to help them focus more on these Champions League matches down the stretch as they also try to make a Premier League Title push. Liverpool is a very strong contender to lift this trophy this season and they have shown no signs of slowing down in any of the competitions they play in. They were discussed as a possible dark horse in this competition at +1400 prior to the League Phase starting, but there is still some good value in them to lift the trophy at this price.
Barcelona +600: Barcelona is coming out of the League Phase as the team with the next best chance at claiming the Champions League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Barcelona finished in 2nd place of the League Phase at 6-1-1, scoring 28 goals in their 8 matches but also allowing 13 goals in those. They are also going to have a good path in this competition due to their high seeding and they will not be playing in the playoff round either. Barcelona has a very potent attack that has been scoring a lot of goals in all of their competitions, leading all of the teams in this competition as well, but their defense has been a big problem for them. They have had some close calls in the League Phase which they needed to score their way out of, and they were able to, but that could get them into a lot of trouble deeper in this competition when they face a more sound team defensively. They allowed the most goals in the competition out of the top 16 teams in the League Phase and this has been a problem in La Liga as well. Barcelona has both the quality and the depth to make a deep run in this competition, but eventually they are going to run into a better defensive team that will give them trouble and put them in a hole that they will not be able to score their way out of. Defense becomes a much bigger piece to the puzzle as teams get deeper into this competition and Barcelona’s defense will be something that holds them back here. There is no real value in Barcelona to lift the trophy at this price.
Arsenal +600: Arsenal is coming out of the League Phase as the team with the next best chance at claiming the Champions League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Arsenal finished the League Phase in 3rd place at 6-1-1, scoring 16 goals in their 8 matches while only allowing 3 goals in those. They have had a nice balance in this competition between their attack and their defense, and they had the 2nd best defense in the League Phase behind Inter Milan. They will not have to play in the playoff round which gives them an advantage, but they are also a team that has managed to drop the ball in big moments multiple times over the last few years. They have been a strong force in the Premier League the last few seasons and are once again in 2nd place, right behind Liverpool, but they have had many chances to lift the Premier League Title and bottled it down the stretch. Once again they are in position to try and win the Premier League this season so that is going to be something that takes focus away from this competition. Champions League is a big priority for them and they do have the quality as well as the depth to make a deep run, but they have not been able to in previous years and as long as they are still in the hunt for the Premier League Title, they will not be fully focused on this competition. Arsenal has also had many opportunities this year to cut the gap between them and Liverpool in the Premier League, but they continue to bundle big matches and drop points when they have a chance to gain ground. That is something that is going to rear it’s ugly head the deeper they get into this competition as well. Arsenal does have some value at this price with the form they have been in all year, but they are always a team that is just right there and can never get over the big hump. Arsenal is not the best option to win this competition this season.
Bayern Munich +750: Bayern Munich is coming out of the League Phase as the team with the next best chance at claiming the Champions League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Bayern Munich finished the League Phase in 12th place at 5-0-3, scoring 20 goals in their 8 matches while allowing 12 goals in those. They did not finish in the top 8 so they will be playing against Celtic in the playoff round. Celtic does not have the quality that Bayern has so they should be able to get through, but it is still 2 extra matches they have to play where anything can happen. They are also going to have to play a top 8 team after this if they do get through to the Round of 16 so they are already on a much harder path to the final. They have been the dominant team in the Bundesliga this season, but that has not been the case in this competition. They have struggled more with 3 losses in their 8 matches, and all 3 of those losses were away from home, 2 of those losses coming to teams in the top 8 which they could have to face again in the next round. Their defense has been a big problem in these away matches as well, allowing 9 goals in their 4 away matches in the League Phase, and this has been a problem for them in Bundesliga too as 10 of their 16 goals allowed this season came away from home. Defense is going to be very important as they get deeper into this competition and they will eventually run into a team that will be able to exploit them, especially with their competition getting much harder from the Round of 16 on. There is no real value in Bayern Munich to lift the trophy at this price.
Real Madrid +800: Real Madrid is coming out of the League Phase as the team with the next best chance at claiming the Champions League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Real Madrid is the defending champion of this competition, they did not have a good League Phase. They finished the League Phase in 11th place at 5-0-3, scoring 20 goals in their 8 matches while allowing 12 goals in those. They may be the defending champions and have had great success in this competition over the last decade, but they are already at a disadvantage since they have to play in the playoff round. They are going to have a much harder path if they make it to the Round of 16, but they also have to face Manchester City in the playoff race and that is no walkover. Man City has not been in great form this season, but that is still 2 extra matches against a quality team that could see Real Madrid out of the competition before the Round of 16. A lot of their trouble came in the 1st half of the League Phase as they have been much better in the 2nd half of their matches, even climbing up to the top of La Liga as well, but it is still going to be an uphill battle for them to get back to the Final despite having the quality and the depth to do so. Real Madrid is still one of the better teams in the competition and they have been in much better form recently as well, but there is too much liability on them to get through a gauntlet of teams on their way to the Final. Real Madrid is not the best option here to lift the trophy this season.
Manchester City +1000: Man City is coming out of the League Phase as the team with the next best chance at claiming the Champions League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Man City finished the League Phase in 22nd place at 3-2-3, scoring 18 goals in their 8 matches while allowing 14 goals in those. They have struggled a lot in this competition this year and even needed a win in their final match of the League Phase just to qualify as they were on the outside looking in. It has not just been this competition though as they have also fallen off in the Premier League this year, concurrently sitting in 4th place and out of the Title race that they have dominated over the last few years. They have had a lot of distractions off the pitch this season which could be affecting their play, but they have also been in poor form for a lot of the season, very inconsistent from match to match. They are also going to have to play in the playoff round just to make the Round of 16 and they could not have asked for a tougher opponent as they will be facing the defending champions themselves, Real Madrid. Man City has been so inconsistent all season and their path is going to be much too difficult for them to make a deep run this season in a down year. This is not a competition they have had a lot of success in over the years either. There is no real value in Man City at this price as they could be out of the tournament before the Round of 16 even starts.
Inter Milan +1400: Inter Milan is coming out of the League Phase as the team with the next best chance at claiming the Champions League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Inter Milan finished the League Phase in 4th place at 6-1-1, scoring 11 goals in their 8 matches while only allowing 1 goal in those. They had the best defense in the League Phase this year, but they did not have a very strong attack which could get them into some trouble. That great defense will be able to carry them deep into this competition though, and they have the quality as well as the depth to make a deep run. They have been one of the more dominant teams in Italy consistently over the last few years and they do have experience going deep in this competition, making the Final just a few years ago. They did have a problem in their away matches as they were 2-1-1 and only scored 2 goals in those 4 matches. Their defense will be able to keep them in a lot of their matches as they are a very tough team to beat, but their lack of a strong attack could get them into situations where penalties become the deciding factor. Inter is going to be a force in this competition with that great defense which will carry them far. They are not the best option to win this competition, but they do have some value as a dark horse to lift the trophy at this price.
Bayer Leverkusen +2500: Leverkusen is not coming out of the League Phase as the team with the next best chance at claiming the Champions League Title this year according to the oddsmakers, but they do have some value as a dark horse at this price. They finished the League Phase in 6th place at 5-1-2, scoring 15 goals in their 8 matches and allowing 7 goals in those. They were a much different team in the competition away from home, going 1-1-2 with all 7 of their goals allowed coming in those 4 matches. They still have a lot of quality in their squad though and they do have some experience making a deep run from last year. They were the Europa League runners up last season, losing to Atalanta in the Final, but they did win their domestic league so it only makes sense that there will be more of a focus on winning Champions League this season. They will not be playing in the playoff round either so they do have a bit of an advantage as they are right in the Round of 16 and could be getting a weaker opponent in that round. They have also been a force at home so they will take advantage of their home legs and will always give themselves a chance to advance. Leverkusen is not the best team in the competition by far, but they had a magical run last season across all of the different competitions they were in so they have a chance to recreate that magic again this season. They have a lot of value at this price to make a deep run as a potential dark horse.
RecommendationThere are plenty of quality teams left in the competition with this new format, but only 1 team can lift the trophy this year with everything falling into place for that club. With all things considered, Liverpool is still the best option to lift the trophy at +400 with the form they have been in all season as they seem to be on a mission to win everything they can. Inter Milan at +1400 with their good defense and Leverkusen at +2500 with their experience in Europa League from last season are both good options as dark horses though as both of these teams have the potential to go on a run. Liverpool at +400 is the best option followed by Inter Milan at +1400 and Leverkusen at +2500.
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